Daily Report 020916

Soybean
Domestically, DCE soybean dropped yesterday. Oil and meal strengthen fluctuated recently, and the ratio is under upward tendency. Northeast China district soybean price keeps stable; sales price is between RMB 3700/ton and 3800/ton. Market trading volume slightly increased compared with before. This limits price of dropping. Soybean meal side, actuals price is stable. Individual districts and oil plants slightly dropped with RMB 10-30/ton. Trading main body is stable and weak. Actuals trading is weak. The declining import cost dragged the soybean meal market. Domestic breeding industry recovery is worse than expectation. The pessimistic forward market caused feed enterprise and traders purchasing cautiously. Oil plant inventory stress increased. As for operation, US soybean is under seasonal roll back tendency. Prefer short or buying oil selling meal arbitrage.
 
Stock Index
Yesterday stock market dived at the close. Real estate section dropped 2.6%, then excavation, steel and war industry. Stock companies section dropped near 1%. Capitals of Hengda concept stock outflowed. Now lacks hotspot. Rally section lacks long term logic. With promote of reform, de-capacity, state-owned enterprise reform, stronger supervise and deduct enterprise burden, capital is leaving virtual and flowing into real section. The market is not pessimistic.
 
PP
Yesterday PP futures fluctuated downward; opened at 7272 and closed at 7224. Trading volume decreased 77346 lots to 293000 lots. Holding volume decreased 2998 lots to 615000 lots. Actuals side, yesterday domestic PP market slightly loosened. Intraday main quoted prices for wires of north China, east China and south China markets are RMB 7950-8200/ton, RMB 8100-8300/ton and RMB 8200-8500/ton, respectively. Current although moving average system changes to downward, MACD green volume lengthens, and the tendency is weak. Price dropped below 60 days average. If price keeps below 60 days average, can try short. -8400/ton, respectively. Current although moving average system changes to downward, MACD green volume lengthens. Yesterday price ended above 60 days average; recommend for observation. 
 
Nature Rubber
Yesterday most commodity species rallied. Till actuals trading time: domestic spots price is 1340-1350(+10); domestic cargo price is 1290-1310(+20); US RSS spots price is 1540-1560(+20); US RSS cargo price is 1520-1540(+30); Singapore cargo price is1310-1330(+20); Thai cargo price 1360-1380(+20); mixed rubber price is 10450-10500(+150). Overall, the structure of forward and actuals and the contradiction brought by high inventory keep Shanghai rubber price with weak near month price and strong far month price. Recently most domestic commodities are at the position of days bolster line. Recommend short-term speculate.
 
Copper
Thursday copper market was weak, and slightly fluctuated near 5 days average. LME inventory increased 11000 tons to 305000 tons. LME physical discount slightly narrowed $1.25 to discount $10. Since 22 August, LME inventory has continuously increased 8 days with 94000 tons. Supply side, the world biggest copper producer Chile is facing strike. Salvador planned to strike this Saturday. Los Bronces of Anglo America also denied salary terms. Salvador planning output of this year is 63000 tons. Los Bronces output of last year was 402000 tons. Technically, copper price is near this year side-way bolster position. Whether this position is affective will determine the core copper price will decrease.  
Dong LV (Investment Certificate NO. TZ008452)