Daily Report 290816
Last week PP futures continued fluctuation. Upstream side, till last Friday, FOB Korea PP average price was $800.5/ton. Device side, now PP device operation rate is about 78.9%, flat with last week. Actuals side, last week PP market price narrowly fluctuated. Since recent device under maintenance is much. Expand of capacity is still weak. Supply stress is low. Influenced by G20, East China downstream factory stopped or decreased operation. Needs side is weak. Intraday main quoted prices for wires of north China, east China and south China markets are RMB 8150-8200/ton, RMB 8250-8400/ton and RMB 8300-8400/ton, respectively. Currently moving average system twines. MACD green columns lengthened. Recently market continued fluctuated at high position. Recommend for observation.
Nature Rubber
Last week Shanghai rubber price rolled back. The spread of nearby and deferred contract rolled back. Till actuals trading time: domestic spots price is 1320-1330; domestic cargo price is 1270-1280; US RSS spots price is 1540-1560; US RSS cargo price is 1510-1560; Singapore cargo price is 1290-1300; Thai cargo price 1320-1340; mixed rubber price is 10400-10500. News side, the Fed president Yellen presented at last Friday Jackson Hole Central Bank conference that since the US economy has approached the Fed target, the reason for interest hike increased. The Bloomberg summarized analysts’ opinion that the most possible time point is this December. Overall, the structure of forward and actuals and the contradiction brought by high inventory keep Shanghai rubber price with weak near month price and strong far month price. Pay attention to how the price gap fixes at September. Recommend short-term speculate under long-short games.
Last week copper market was weak and rolled back. Last week three main exchanges inventory totally increased 55000 tons to 505000 tons. SHEX decreased 6816 tons, LME increased 61000 tons and COMEX increased 870 tons. LME actuals discount weakened under pressure of inventory. Last week discount enlarged $1.7 to discount $14. Supply side, Codelco copper output of the first-half year increased 1.4% to 843000 tons. CFTC positioning data shows that till last Tuesday, fund long positioning increased 8999 lots and short positioning increased 10591 lots. Net short positioning increase forces copper price decrease. Technically, copper price is near this year side-way bolster position. Whether this position is affective will determine the core copper price will decrease. As for trading we recommend short and end loss. Loss limit point is at 5 days average.
Dong LV (Investment Certificate NO. TZ008452)