Daily Report 230816
Nature Rubber
Yesterday Shanghai rubber forward month fluctuated and dropped. The price gap of forward and near month is back to 2200. US dollar actuals price dropped. Till actuals trading time: domestic spots price is 1340-1350(0); domestic cargo price is 1300-1330(-20); US RSS spots price is 1630-1660(-20); US RSS cargo price is 1630-1680(-20); Singapore cargo price is 1320-1350(-20); Thai cargo price 1340-1370(-20); mixed rubber price is 10650-10700(0). Overall, the structure of forward and actuals and the contradiction brought by high inventory keep Shanghai rubber price with weak near month price and strong far month price. September long position closing stress exits. January contract is strong as a result of macro level long atmosphere. Although delivery month is near, the price is difficult to restrain. Recommend short-term speculate under long-short games.
Domestically, DCE soybean rallied following overseas section. Oil against meal ratio began to roll back this week. Northeast China district old soybean sales still concentrated at RMB 3640-3850/ton. Under the background that Central Plains new soybean coming into market and national continuously increasing oil grain inventory, the domestic soybean market will keep weak. Soybean meal side, actuals price is stable, and several places slightly fluctuate with range of RMB 10-30/ton. Costal district oil plant main quotation is RMB 3150-3220/ton. Following overseas section, DCE soybean meal will continue increase. As for operation, the market is between old and new grain exchanging period. Market is seeking new hype point. As for operation, go short at high point and arbitrage with buying oil and selling soybean meal.
Yesterday PP futures opened high and dropped; opened at 7575 and closed at 7468. Trading volume increased 15062 lots to 292000 lots. Holding volume decreased 774 lots to 500000 lots. Actuals side, domestic PP market price slightly fluctuates. In the earlier week, Sinopec factory price is stable. Market cost bolster is weak. Futures market opened low, and traders’ sentiment is pessimistic. Currently moving average system twines. MACD exposure downward extended as weak pattern. Recently market will continue fluctuation.
Monday domestic and overseas copper price continue rolling back, which is the lowest point since July. Monday LME inventory largely increased 19000 tons to 229000 tons. LME physical discount enlarged $2.75 to discount $15. Hudson Bay claims its Constancia copper mine output release is good. This year’s output is predicted to increase 23% to 130000 tons. China real estate created new high price. Recent China real estate data shows the sigh of rolling back, which is not good to copper consumption. Technically, copper market is still weak. As for operation keep short with stop loss.
Dong LV (Investment Certificate NO. TZ008452)