Daily Report 160816

Overseas and domestic rally comes from DCE soybean oil tendency. Because of Malaysia export data, soybean oil price increased. Oil against meal ratio rallied again. Northeast China district soybean is bearish and stable. Filtered grain purchasing price is RMB 3800-3900/ton. Soybean meal side, actuals quotation is mixed with up and down. Coastal main oil plant quotation is RMB 3080-3150/ton. Import soybean quantity dropped. As for operation, go short at high point and arbitrage with buying oil and selling soybean meal.
Nature Rubber
Yesterday commodity market was mixed with up and down. Shanghai rubber continued weak near month and strong far month tendency. Till actuals trading time: domestic spots price is 1350-1360(+20); domestic cargo price is 1330-1350(+20); US RSS spots price is 1660-1680(+20); US RSS cargo price is 1660-1700(+20); Singapore cargo price is 1360-1380(+20); Thai cargo price 1390-1410(+30); mixed rubber price is 10850-10950(+100). News side, till mid-August 2016, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory decreased 10.2% to 140600 tons, 16000 tons less than last term. Specifically, nature rubber outbound is the main reason of total inventory dropping, continued the double-digit decreasing range. Synthetic rubber inventory is slightly dropped. Mixed rubber inventory decreased more than 1000 tons. Other synthetic rubber inventory increased. Ribbed smoked sheets inventory decrease range is more than 9%. Overall, the structure of forward and actuals and the contradiction brought by high inventory keep Shanghai rubber price with weak near month price and strong far month price. September long position closing stress exits. January contract is strong as a result of macro level long atmosphere. Although delivery month is near, the price is difficult to restrain. Recommend short-term speculate under long-short games.
Monday copper market is flat. LME actuals discount narrowed $4.75 to discount $7.25. Inventory increased 4775 tons to 207000 tons. Supply side, 60% market occupied copper smelting enterprise second season output increased 4.09%. China and BHP are main increasing sources. The first-half year of 2016 output increasing range is more than 4%; better than last year -1.33%. Technically, copper price is still under downward tendency. LME resistant position is $4780/4830, and domestically is RMB 37400/37700. Go short with trading operation.
Dong LV (Investment Certificate NO. TZ008452)