Daily Report 120816
Domestically, soybean meal followed overseas section tendency. Oil against meal ratio rolled back. Northeast China district soybean is bearish and stable. Filtered grain purchasing price is RMB 3800-3900/ton. Old soybean is at an advantage with quantity and price. Traders are not enthusiastic about purchasing soybean of 2015. Soybean meal side, actuals price is stable and slightly sunk. Several districts and oil plants decease range is RMB 10-30/ton. Trading main body is adjusting and stable. Coastal main oil plant quotation is RMB 3080-3150/ton. As for operation, we consider forward soybean tendency will continue fluctuation. Recommend short with low volume or arbitrage with buying oil and selling soybean meal.
Yesterday PP futures fluctuated at low position; opened at 7340 and closed at 7365. Trading volume decreased 149000 lots to 201000 lots. Holding volume decreased 12074 lots to 476000 lots. Actuals side, domestic PP market price slightly dropped. Sinopec factory price is stable, and bolster to market cost is limited. Futures price is at low position. Market processor is stressed, and pessimistic. Recently average system has the signal of changing, and MACD formed will form dead crossing. Recently is predicted bearish fluctuation.
Thursday copper market trading was weak, and copper price was slightly rallied. LME physical discount enlarged $3.25 to discount $8. Inventory continued decreased 900 tons to 204000 tons. Supply side, Glencore’s second season copper output decreased 3% year-on-year to 368000 tons. The first-half year copper output decreased 4% year-on-year to 703000 tons. The main reason is Congo’s Katanga and Zambia’s Mopani copper output decrease. The expected copper output is 1385000 tons to 1435000 tons; 20000 tons more than previous expected. Technically, recently copper price is still under adjustment. We observe the effectiveness of former bolster line and recent resistant line; LME it is $4880/4900 and domestically RMB 37800/38000. that after Mopani finishes debug and the deep exploitation begins, yearly output is predicted to be 750000 tons. Technically, copper price is still bearish. Resistance is at average 5. Recommend short and control risk.
Dong LV (Investment Certificate NO. TZ008452)