Daily Report 090816

Nature Rubber
Yesterday domestic industrial products tendency is strong. Shanghai rubber near month and forward month continues differentiating. Actuals trading period quotation goes up: domestic spots price is 1300-1320(+20); domestic cargo price is 1290-1310(+10); US RSS spots price is 1640-1680(0); US RSS cargo price is 1630-1700(0); Singapore cargo price is 1310-1330(0); Thai cargo price 1330-1350(0); mixed rubber price is 10550-10600(+150). Overall, the structure of forward and actuals and the contradiction brought by high inventory keep Shanghai rubber price with weak near month price and strong far month price. September long position closing stress exits. January contract is strong as a result of macro level long atmosphere. Although delivery month is near, the price is difficult to restrain. Recommend short-term speculate under long-short games.
Yesterday PP futures opened high and increased; opened at 8320 and closed at 8440. Trading volume increased 84068 lots to 363000 lots. Holding volume decreased 11058 lots to 542000 lots. Actuals side, domestic PP market slightly fluctuated and went upward with RMB 50-100/ton. Intraday main quoted prices for wires of north China, east China and south China markets are RMB 7950-8100/ton, RMB 8250-8400/ton and RMB 8250-8450/ton, respectively. Currently moving average system twines. MACD green column shortened. Recently market will continue fluctuation and observe line 8500.
Domestically, soybean meal followed overseas section tendency. Oil against meal ratio rallied after rolling back. Northeast district purchasing price hasn’t changed much, and main quotation is RMB 3940-4000/ton. Partial place purchasing price decreased with RMB 80-100/ton. Last Friday auction soybean of 2013 trading increased accidently. Temporarily boost the market. But future market prospect is not optimistic. Soybean side, actuals price slightly increased with RMB 30-60/ton. As for operation, we consider forward soybean tendency will continue fluctuation. Recommend short with low volume or arbitrage with buying oil and selling soybean meal.
Monday copper market rushed high and rolled back. Copper price continuously blocked at 5 days average. LME actuals discount enlarged $0.75 to discount $10.5. Inventory continuously decreased 1625 tons to 205000 tons. Recently copper price dropped. Import loss decreased. Domestic import copper began to appear. Actuals premium began to roll back. Considering bonded area inventory is more than 600000 tons, the increasing copper import influence on copper price upward is limited. Technically, copper price blocked at 5 days average. If the resistance is affective, it still has the possibility of rolling back. Recommend short and control risk.
                                                                                     Dong LV (Investment Certificate NO. TZ008452)