Daily Report 250716 2016-07-25
Nature Rubber  
Last week Shanghai rushed high and rolled back. Till Friday spot goods trading period: domestic spots price is 1310-1320(-20); domestic cargo price is 1310-1320(-20); US RSS spots price is 1600-1630(-10); US RSS cargo price is 1610-1640(-10); Singapore cargo price is 1320-1340(-20); Thai cargo price1340-1370(-10); mixed rubber price is 10700-10800(-100). News side, till mid-term July, Qingdao bonded area rubber storage decreased 17100 to 177300, decreased 8.8% compared to end of last month. For specific species, standard rubber storage decreased fast. Smoke sheet rubber inventory slightly decreased. Till the week of July 22, inventory of SHFE climbed 4425 tons to 345913 tons. In which futures inventory increased 5290 tons to 310990 tons. In addition, SHFE newly approved Shanghai and Qingdao two futures goods storage. The total inventory enlarged. Overall, Shanghai rubber 09 contracts will enter the last week before delivery. Long-short game is more serious. Operating focuses on short-term trading. The former tendency is difficult to realize. Personally consider later market will be fluctuation with lower high point.

Domestically, DCE soybean rolled back following overseas section. Oil against meal ratio fluctuated and rallied. It showed within the progress of rolling back. Last Friday national inventory soybean trading volume decreased compared with last week. Northeast China soybean price continued weak influenced by auction. Heilongjiang main purchasing price was RMB 4000-4100/ton. Inventory soybean auction is strong bearish news. The purchasing enthusiasm of traders decreased. But as spot inventory of all places are rare, and the quality of oil beans is bad, the expected spot goods price decline is limited. Soybean meal side, influenced by rolling back overseas section and weak domestic sales, spot goods dropped with fluctuation, but decreasing range is not large. Domestic port soybean inventory continued high position. Oil plant operating rate increased. Domestic soybean meal spot goods supply is loose. Oil plant sales stress expanded. As for operation, with the continuation of US weather, later rally motion is weaker and weaker. Don’t recommend long positon.

Last week copper price continued high position fluctuation, and didn’t break through the $5000 point. Fundamentally, three big exchanges storage decreased 7890 tons to 468000 tons. In which SHFE inventory decreased 2228 tons, LME decreased 6525 tons and COMEX increased 863 tons. Through survey to domestic enterprises, recently wasted copper supply is loose, and the price gap with refined copper is more than RMB 2000. What’s more, orders are slightly decreased. Considering real estate industry cooled, copper sales of second-half year has a largely possibility of rolling back, which stress on copper price. Supply side, El Soldado ended strike, which begun since July the 8th. Technically, copper price was at the position of $5000. The later market has the possibility of rolling back to $4700. As for operation recommend short and stop-loss orders.
                                                                         Dong LV (Investment Certificate NO. TZ008452)