Daily Report 210716 2016-07-21
Wednesday copper price adjusted from recent rally high price, and resisted at $5000. From main factor, the increasing interest hike expectation strengthen US dollar, and stress on copper price. Fundamental side, Tuesday LME storage turns to increasing 1700 tons to 228000 tons. Spot goods discount slightly narrowed $4 to discount $12.25. Under the circumstances of inventory slightly increase, LME spot discount narrowed on the contrary. Supply side, from data released by WBMS, this January to May global copper market supply shortage was 48000 tons. Within which copper output increased 4.8% year-on-year to 8140000 tons. Refined copper output increased 4% year-on-year to 9660000 tons. From ICSG, April global filtered copper supply shortage was 110000 tons, which is more than March shortage of 59000 tons. Technically, copper price was at the position of $5000. If don’t break this price, the motion of price rolling back will happen. As for trading pay attention to US dollar index tendency.

Domestically, DCE soybean species tendencies were separated. Oil was strong and meal was weak. Soybean No.1 contract dip after national inventory soybean auction. Northeast China soybean continued dropping, and Heilongjiang main purchasing price was RMB 4000-4100/ton. Purchasing volume decreased when price went down. Inventory soybean auction is strong bearish news. The purchasing enthusiasm of traders decreased. But as spot inventory of all places are rare, and the quality of oil beans is bad, the expected spot goods price decline is limited. Soybean meal side, spot goods continued decline tendency. Soybean meal side, spot goods continued dropping, and several places dropped RMB 20-40/ton, which is mainly influenced by domestic inventory overstock. Recently costal oil plant soybean meal inventory is under pressure, as a result of flood area breeding industry. Oil plants of several places have the problem of sales and inventory overstock. As for operation, soybean weather market is significant. With the continuation of US weather, later rally motion is weaker and weaker. Pay attention to US bolster and turn attitude to cautious.

Stock Index
Yesterday stock index fluctuated with slightly drop. Within Shenwan first-class sections, besides non-ferrous metal, all other sections decline range was within 1%, which is adjustment near pressure position. Increase motion is not enough, and fluctuated around former high positon. Supply-side reform settled for main line. Since the beginning of May authorities claimed supply-side reform; Chairman Xi points out in July that we need to stay firm in the reform of state-owned enterprises as well as supply-side, rendering the market reassured. Meanwhile, various pilot project s of central enterprises are fully underway. Since private investment declined, economy downward pressure still exits. Overall pressure exits; with the main line of reform, tendency might be rally with fluctuation.
                                                                   Dong LV (Investment Certificate NO. TZ008452)