Daily Report 110716 2016-07-11
Macro
Domestically, China June CPI increased 1.9% month-on-month; first time less than 2%. PPI decreased 2.6%, and the decline range narrowed for the sixth continuous time. But as a result of significant influence of South China flood on pig industry and vegetable plant, we expect later CPI will return to more than 2%. This week domestic important economy data and financial data will release.
 

 
Copper
Last Friday copper market adjusted at recent rolling back position. Last Friday US released June NFP sharply increased 287000, which is far more than expected 180000, and created the new highest of 18 months. From data released last Sunday of NBS, China June CPI increased 1.9% month-on-month, and PPI decreased 2.6% month-on-month. Analysis shows that this will open policy loose window phase. This Wednesday and Thursday the Fed and Bank of England will release Beige Book and interest rate decision separately. From fundamental side, last week the three exchanges inventory increased 29000 tons to 445000 tons. SHFE increased 236tons, LME increased 2.9 tons and COMEX increased 1 ton. LME spot discount narrowed since last Tuesday, which was $12.75 last Friday. Technically, copper price declined to key point of $4650. As for operation, radical traders can consider appropriately buying, but make sure set stop loss order.
 

 
Soybean
Domestically, DCE last Friday night section rallied following overseas section; oil against meal ratio fluctuated and increased. Spot goods side, domestic soybean price is stable and increased. Recently, Northeast China district purchase price is about RMB 4200/ton. Market purchase and sales are near the end. Production area supply gap is big. Grain dealer purchase is not of scale. Short-term northeast soybean continued boosted by tight supply and demand. The price might slightly increase. Soybean meal side, last week spot goods price sharply decreased. Oil plant quotation was about RMB 3300-3350/ton. South China flood is serious, and caused some influence on breeding industry of partial provinces. The following possible epidemic and destroyed fish pond will influence the need for soybean meal, which caused short-term need decreased. We consider that recent weather influence is short-period, and market emotion reflection is larger than the real influence. As for operation, avoid largely fluctuation recently, and middle-term can go long at low point.
 

 
Stock Index
Last Friday stock index rolled back. After rally of several days, market’s suspicious voice and profit-taking pressure increased. From entity and micro surface, bolster is not enough. From macro surface, supply-side reform and state-owned enterprise not exceed the expectation. This rally is under the background of insensitive of macro data decrease and supply-side reform settled for main line. Market focus is not structural problem like surplus; reform expectation is still market main line. Technically, recent position has reached former pressure positon; rolling back might happen, but not mean rally will end. Buy when calls back; the market shows a fluctuated rally tendency.
                                                    Dong LV (Investment Certificate NO. TZ008452)