Daily Report 070716 2016-07-07
Wednesday copper price decreased $104 to $4713, and then rallied half of the drop. Wednesday LME copper inventory increase put pressure on market. LME inventory increased 23625 tons to 223000 tons, which is largely increase for the second time. News says this is related to China export 60000 tons copper reaches LME storage inventory of Asia. This news might continue to be pressure on market for a short-term. From overall situation, Wednesday commodity market was mostly end with drop, which was related with macro side. Wednesday the Fed FOMC conference minutes showed that US labor and financial market uncertainty increased. Technically, copper price is under adjustment. Bolster point is $4650. As for operation, wait for the adjustment end and buy.

Domestically, DCE night section continued dropping. Oil against meal ratio fluctuated at low point. Spot goods side, domestic soybean price is stable. Food soybean purchasing price increased to RMB 4100-4140/ton. Northeast soybean increase continued, but Anhui and Henan soybean dropped. Market trading and investment is tense. Soybean meal side, spot price dropped with a range of RMB 80-100/ton. Trading main body price dropped. South China flood is serious, and caused some influence on breeding industry of partial provinces. The following possible epidemic and destroyed fish pond will influence the need for soybean meal, which caused short-term need decreased. We consider that recent weather influence is short-period, and market emotion reflection is larger than the real influence. As for operation, avoid largely fluctuation recently, and middle-term can go long at low point.

Macro Economy
Domestically, today will release foreign exchange reserve of June. From Bloomberg market expectation, foreign exchange is expected to decrease 24.7 billion dollars to 3.167 trillion dollars. This decrease range is large compared to first-half of this year, especially compared with the end of first-season and the beginning of second season. Capital outflow will remain at high point, and RMB exchange rate is weak as a result of market risk caused by Brexit. The economy rolls back again after stable, and capital decreased smooth and steady. Capital outflow is not benefit for RMB remain stable; be cautious for devaluation risk.
                                                               Dong LV (Investment Certificate NO. TZ008452)