Daily Report 160616 2016-06-16
Stock Index
Yesterday stock index is not influenced by MSCI delayed the joint of China A stock, opened low and largely rallied. Concept stocks soared and stocks rose generally. The concept of new energy automobile increased a lot. Sub-new stock continued strong. First, reducing holding is increasing, and industry capital isn’t optimistic about the afternoon market. Strict governance increased the difficulty of cash at high point rely on stories, which increases the willingness of reduce holding share. Second, from the core reform side, government changes from demand government to supply reform and innovation. It has a positive influence in the long term, but a success reform is limited by many actual factors. Authorities got rid of economy’s V and U shape tendency, and it won’t be optimistic. Thirdly, private investment decreased to 3.9%, indicates that the entity economy and expectation is worse. Social financing is much lower than expectation. Although newly increased credit is high, but social contribution is limited. M2 is 11.8%, which is lowest since June 2015. Entity economy is weak. Technically, both resist and bolster exist; we recommend short line in fluctuation tendency.
Copper prices rebounded sharply on Wednesday. The Fed announced interest rates unchanged as expected, and said the recent British exit from the euro referendum became concerned factor, and indicated that would focus on data performance. Interest rate chart shows will raise interest rates twice this year, and the officials who are expected to raise interest rate once this year increased. Influenced by interest rate hike postponed, the dollar index has been lower; the British retreat Europe referendum is still the market uncertainty. Back to the copper market, LME spot discount narrowed $ 2.50 to US $ 12.25, inventory continued to decline 1125 to 202,000 tons. It is said that facing commodity surplus situation, China plans to appropriately increase non-ferrous metal reserves, the message play a role all line non-ferrous metal increase. From the copper market, we tend to consider the bottom of the price of copper is now; this year is bottom fluctuation market, the medium to long term we recommend long. Short-term matters such as the British referendum, copper prices are still possible to volatile at low position. Given the concentrated market short, the market is vulnerable to the impact of short positions, the original short-term short position can control the risk based on market performance.
Domestically, DCE soybean slightly rolled back following overseas section; meals ratios continue to new lows. Spot, the northern soybean prices are stable and slightly rose, including Jiamusi, Shuangyashan market prices increased by 20-40 yuan / ton; Suihua area price increased 20 yuan / ton, the primary supply situation remains grim. Now Sinograin North Oil rotation soybean quotation is outbound RMB3750/ton, relatively strong compared to last week, because spot goods are tight, some areas buying and selling are mainly rotation grains. Soybean meal, spot quotation slightly lower, price fell 30-50 yuan / ton in some areas. Oil plant quotation will continue raise the price, because the former high price sold soybean meal has not delivered yet. Short-term adjustment of the overseas section is expected to show further affect on downstream procurement rhythm, attention to the US soybean callback and area report at the end of month. Action proposed: the right amount of beans than a single midline hold.
Dong LV (Investment Certificate NO. TZ008452)