Daily Report 260516 2016-05-26
Soybean
Domestically, DCE soybean night section rallied with overseas section. The fluctuation of soybean meal shakes the oil meal ratio. Spot goods side, domestic soybean spot goods market is stable and relatively strong, but south and north market is restricted by needs system of separate districts; soybean price tendency is different. Now Hei Longjiang filtered grain purchase price is RMB3900-3960/ton. Both purchase and sales are weak. In the short term, since surplus grain ratio declined significantly, under the background of soybean storage auction suspension, the lack of supply will boost price increase. The price is strong in long term. Soybean meal side, spot goods market is stable. The tendency is better than future market because strong fundamental level bolster. Now the dealing is still weak. Few far contract basis trading is good. US soybean is weak. DCE soybean meal night section rolled back. Import soybean inbound volume increased; domestic spot goods price hence rolled back. Since we hold the opinion of fluctuation and strong tendency for US section, and domestic breeding recovery situation is good, soybean meal is long in the middle term. As for operation, soybean meal long position is held when rollback happens, and arbitrage between oil and meal observe temperately.



Copper
Wednesday copper market continued rally; London copper ended with 1.95% increase. US overnight new house sale is excellent. But since recently US dollars increased sharply, better data can’t stimulate US dollar. From entire disk, closing of short position is the main power of copper price rally. Recently domestic and overseas copper markets all appear premium, and global storage decline bolsters copper price. Especially when copper price declined to low point of $4500, market selling power is not enough. The approval of spot market to recent price also bolsters recent copper price. Recently, import trade loss shrinks a lot. The recent recovery import will resist copper price. From the latest new, Chinalco will strike since 31 May for 4 days of copper mine in Peru. Technically, recent copper price rallied, and this situation is predicted to continue in short term. Dealing can observe for new operating opportunity.



Macro Economy
In China, Bloomberg News quoted informed sources saying that Chinese officials will hold Sino-US strategic dialogue to know about the probability of the Fed rate hike in June in Beijing next month.
China's response to the United States’ interest hike in June and the potential market impact of the RMB exchange rate plan has been prepared ready. China hope the Fed interest hike can postpone until July, but including the real economy down again, the impact of financial market instability and a series of factors, the current RMB exchange rate remain under pressure.
                                                                         Dong LV (Investment Certificate NO. TZ008452)