Daily Report 230516 2016-05-23
Domestically, last week DCE soybean one performed strong; soybean meal continued rally, oil went weak; oil against meal ratio declined to 2.04:1. From spot goods side, domestic soybean price is stable with upward trend. Heilongjiang and Jilin after filtered purchase price is RMB 3800-3900/ton. The price of Neimeng district is a little high. Now after filtered quotation is RMB 3900-4000/ton. Basic level supply shortage is obvious; spring sowing leads into a stalemate over the purchase and sale. Market goods sauce is lack and traders purchase volume is low. From soybean meal side, quotation is between RMB 2900-2980/ton. Oil plant inventory recovered, and operation rate is high. Oil plant is willing to bolster the price, but with the port inbound increases, pressure comes later. From mid and long term, as a result of overseas section strong tendency, and domestic cultivation recovery situation is good. DCE soybean will continue fluctuation upward situation following US market. Hold long position after call back, and be cautious about short position. As for operation, soybean long position can be held, and arbitrage between oil and meal observe temporarily.

Last week copper price dropped. As for main reasons, the Fed indicates that under the circumstances of economy recovery, the statement of June interest hike boost US dollar, and copper price is under stress. Back to copper market, LME spot goods price decreased $3.25 to $10.5, and the average price is $8.3, less than $11.25 last week. Last week three main exchanges overall inventories decreased 31474 tons, including SHFE decreased 28876 tons, LME decreased 1400 tons, COMEX increased 1198 tons. From Shanghai Metals Market, progressing charge increased form $90-96/ton last week to $93-99/ton. Progressing charges increased since this February, and supply stress was rising. With stimulation of increasing processing charges to production activity and the end of domestic consumption season, the fundamental side of copper market is still not optimistic. Overall, copper market is still weak, and the operation is will short; target profit is at average 10.

Nature Rubber
Last week Shanghai rubber dropped with increasing volume; main contract 1609 touched the lowest 10565. US spot market quotation still dropped heavily, till Friday: domestic spots price is 1260-1270,; domestic cargo price is 1260-1280; US RSS spots price is 1510-1530; US RSS cargo price is1570-1600; Singapore cargo price is 1310-1330; Thai cargo price 1330-1350; mixed rubber price is 9900-10000. From news side, Qingdao bonded area rubber is mainly outbound, and maintained around 300-500 tons; outbound volume slightly increased compared to last week. Inbound is mainly concentrated in rare warehouse, and the mount is around 500-600 and more. Bounded area storage continued downward tendency. Shanghai futures exchange storage increased 3698 tons to 317467 tons; storage futures increased 2710 tons to 293959 tons. Overall, rubber seasonal pressure appears; weaken macro atmosphere caused Shanghai rubber price in a rush, and the weak tendency maintains in the later market.

Last week PP futures continued downward. Upstream side, till Friday night, the average price of FOB Korea propylene average price was $710.5/ton. From device side, current operating ratio was about 86.6%, slightly lower than preceding week. From spot goods side, last week spot good market adjusted sideways. With the combined action of futures price and factory’s price, quotation of traders maintains stable. Downstream factories are cautious and difficult to make a deal. Intraday main quoted prices for wires of north China, east China and south China markets are RMB 6850-6900/ton, RMB6750-6850/ton and RMB6750-6950/ton, respectively. As for operation, current moving average system changes to downward; the price dropped below average 60. If the price is stable below average 60, then downward tendency can be confirmed; can short at the high point.
                                                                            Dong LV (Investment Certificate NO. TZ008452)