Daily Report 190516 2016-05-19
Domestically, DCE night section mixed with up and down, and oil against meal ratio is 2.115:1. From spot goods side, North China soybean price is stable, and basic level surplus grain is decreasing. The tendency of supply and need is tighten, which will bolster the price to be strong. The purchasing and selling of basic level is deadlock. Farmers are busy sowing and not willing to sell grains. Price increase is lack of condition. From meal bean side, spot goods price increased RMB 50-80/ton , with price between RMB 2950-3000/ton. The stress of oil plant is not big; although inbound soybean supply is big and operation rate is high. But there is no inventory reserve from oil plant to middle traders. From mid and long term, as a result of overseas section strong tendency, and domestic cultivation recovery situation is good. DCE soybean will continue fluctuation upward situation following US market. Hold long position after call back, and be cautious about short position. As for operation, soybean long position can be held, and arbitrage between oil and meal observe temporarily.

Nature Rubber
Yesterday Shanghai rubber dropped with increased volume again. US spot goods price sharply dropped: domestic spots price is1320-1330(-50); domestic cargo price is 1310-1330(-50); US RSS spots price is 1550-1570(-30); US RSS cargo price is 1600-1620(-20); mixed rubber price is 10200-10400 (-400). From news side, the New York Fed announced that will sell small-scale national debt and MBS since nest month, and emphasized this didn’t mean the change of monetary policy. Wednesday, the April Fed meeting claims that the data shows US economy is improving, and the Fed may raise interest rate at the June meeting. The Fed fought back about the prediction the interest hike won’t happen at June. Overall, after we indicated market weaken at the beginning of this month, domestic industry and Shanghai rubber are in a rush, and is expected to keep weak.

Yesterday PP futures opened high and went downward; opened at 6740 and closed at 6601. Trading volume increased 69968 to 0.737 million lots, and holding increased 50394 to 571000 lots. From spot goods side, yesterday domestic PP market price fluctuated narrowly. Part of Sinopec manufacturer’s price increased, and bolter to market cost increased. PP futures stayed at high point, and roll back at noon; strike a lot on the market. Traders sell as market needs. Traders quoted with a slightly higher price to observe market’s reflection. Downstream factories are not willing to receive the goods. Intraday main quoted prices for wires of north China, east China and south China markets are RMB 6800-7000/ton, RMB6800-6900/ton and RMB6800-6950/ton, respectively. As for operation, current moving average system twisted; MACD exposure downward extended as weak pattern. Price went down through average 60, which is a weak tendency.

                                                               Dong LV (Investment Certificate NO. TZ008452)