Daily Report 060516 2016-05-06
Thursday copper price further dropped, continuously rallying US dollar interest rate stresses on copper price. According to the data released on Thursday, the number of individuals that apply for employment benefits has dramatically increased to 17000, reaching the highest level since February of last year. Meanwhile, the private employment data released on last Wednesday is under expectation. Hence, market maintain cautious attitude towards the non-farm payrolls which will be released on Friday. It is worth paying attention to the continuousness of uptrend of US Dollar Index. Back to copper price, LME spots premium increased $5 to $17.25, which is highest since the 21 April. Storage slightly increased 225 tons. Domestic spots turned to premium, and recent downward copper price appeals spots buyer. From supply side, Jiangxi Copper indicates that China copper output won’t decrease, because output reduction of big enterprise will be made up by newly increased product capacity. According to Bloomberg, current bonded area storage reaches 520000 tons, slightly increases compared with 510000 tons of the end of March; the lowest point of February is 380000 tons. Technically, copper price is near the resistance line of $4730 and RMB 36000.
Domestically, DCE soybean retraced following overseas market; soybean meal’s big drop range increased the oil against meal ratio to 2.34:1. Northeast district soybean tendency is separated; high quality soybean is in small amount with high price. Production place is difficult to purchase. Nowadays Northeast district is during spring sowing, and soybean purchasing and selling have cleared the way to spring sowing. Basic high quality raw grain price increased to near RMB 3800/ton, which is still high.
From soybean meal side, domestic soybean meal spots price slightly increased RMB 20/ton out of fluctuation. Price is boosted by overnight US soybean market ending high. ‘In addtion, trading is not bad recent days, and some oil plant increases volume; stronger the mindset from oil plants to bolster price. As for operation, domestic and overseas soybean meal is weak, so soybean meal long position should reduce or close off, long arbitrage between oil and meal can be hold.
Nature Rubber
Yesterday Shanghai rubber dropped with volume increased; US dollar spots market dropped following overseas section. Up to spots trading period: domestic spots price is 1430-1440(-30); domestic cargo price is 1420-1430(-30); US RSS spots price is 1600-1630(-20); US RSS cargo price is 1650-1680(-10); Singapore cargo price is 1480-1500(-30); Thai cargo price 1500-1520(-20); mixed rubber price is 11300-11400(-100). News side, from Bloomberg yesterday,” China commodity futures have been through a small-scale bubble burst. After commodity price roared, the Futures Exchanges’ continuous measures calmed the speculators. According to Bloomberg, last month commodity futures market the highest trading volume of single day is 0.17 billion. Nowadays trading volume has been cut half, back to the level of one year before. Steel rebar, iron ore and hot rolled prices have fallen 17% from April high point.” Overall, domestic commodity market capital evacuated and rubber spots market dropped before holiday. Shanghai rubber price is back to weak.
Yesterday PP futures continued fluctuation, opened at 6836 and ended at 6814, trading volume decreased 52624 lots to 0.662 million lots, and holding increased 5882 lots to 596000 lots. From spots side, yesterday domestic PP market showed fluctuated and dropped. Part of producer price of petrochemical decreased, and bolster for the market costs weakened. PP futures fluctuated with large range, and influence on market attitude is limited. Trader sell actively,hence profit is slightly surrendered to boost a deal; Demand of downstream enterprises receiving is low; market trade atmosphere is low.
Intraday main quoted prices for wires of north China, east China and south China markets are RMB 6650-6800/ton, RMB6750-6900/ton and RMB6800-6950/ton, respectively.
As for operation, current moving average system changes to downward, MACD green column extends, and recommends downward trend.
                                                                    Dong LV (Investment Certificate NO. TZ008452)