Daily Report 290216 2016-02-29
Last week copper market continued fluctuation in the earlier period and, Friday copper price once rose to prior high point than fell back. From leading factors, the G20 meeting increased investors’ expectation on further stimulated policy, would stabilize the international and domestic finance market. Intraday international crude oil price as well rallied to recent high point for a time; most global stock markets ended high, entire finance market panic momentum had relieved which provide revive momentum on the copper price. Last Friday LME spots premium continued increased $0.5 to $8.75; last week three main exchanged total inventory decreased 12041 tons, including SHFE inventory decreased 881 tons, LME inventory decreased 10700 tons, COMEX inventory decreased 460 tons. On supply side, concentrates transportation from the Andina copper mine of Codelco was still completely halted, for the reason of carrying out maintenance work after underground pipes burst, copper output of this mine in 2014 was totally 232,000 tons. Technically, copper market was still in fluctuation, we recommend paying attention on the performance of LME copper price at $ 4720/30, in domestic was RMB 36900/37000.
DCE soybean tendency was in fluctuation and volatile followed overseas market; soybean No.1 tendency was independent; oil against meal ratio faced with the hammer at 2.45:1. Northeast area region was still mainly in downward trend, Heilongjiang area purchase price was at RMB 3700/ton; soybean filtered by tower export price was at RMB 3800/ton, current market high quality and high price pattern was plainly, since the surplus grain ratio at northeast area was about 40% and, faced the problems on hard to reserve and concentrated marketing, hence domestic soybean meal short term tendency was still not optimistic.
From soybean meal side, the overall soybean meal spots quotation edged down, spots and basis trading was still thin. Domestic soybean meal working modulus was gradually back to normal level after the Spring Festival; domestic soybean import supply was sufficient and, breeding stock on pig and other breeding markets was low which was hard to boost the breeding enterprises purchase demand after holidays. As for operation, soybean No.1 contract takes reference at 3400-3600; oil against meal arbitrage pays attention to stop profit at 2.43-2.45:1.
Natural Rubber
Last week shanghai rubber fell back after soaring, US dollar spots quotation dropped $10-20. Up to 26 February, Friday: domestic spots price is 1060-1080; domestic cargo price 1090-1100; US dollar RSS spots price 1250-1270; US dollar RSS cargo price 1260-1270; RMB mixed glue price 8700-8800 (0). From news side: the Chinese official affirmative disclosed easing policy during the G20 meeting in the weekend but, this was already inside of market’s expectation. In addition, lots of agreements were established which made noncompetitive depreciation but, in substance, each one had a different idea and was all worried about competitive depreciation from opposite side; seemed the dollar assets were boosted in a short term. But need to beware of expectation on another interest rate hike near the March Fed meeting, pay attention on this week intensively US economy data and Fed officers’ attitude. Domestic industrial products might make revises, which is different from industry vacuum near the Spring Festival, the fundamental side factors will be more superimposed in each variety, and rubber was relatively weak.
                                                                        Dong LV (Investment Certificate NO. TZ008452)