Daily Report 240216 2016-02-24
Tuesday copper market slightly dropper after met resistance on upward trend; copper price fluctuated at the intraday high point. From the leading factors, domestic stock market ended the continuously rally trend; market again concerned on the top copper-demand countries. In addition, since Saudi Oil Minister indicated would not reduce output, yesterday crude oil market faced collapse again; Europe and US stock market was in bad performance dragged from the international oil price and, was ended in low; the panic sentiment raised again, VIX index rose back to 20.98; macro risk on the copper market raised. On copper side, LME spots premium decreased $0.75 to $2.75; inventory continued decreased 1800 tons. Domestic spots discount extended RMB 25 at discount RMB 250 – 150; market showed the consumer companies hadn’t back to market yet after the fifteenth day of lunar month and, was lacked of buying momentum which formed a certain hammer on market. Japan Copper and Brass Association released data on Tuesday and showed, Japanese this January rolled copper decreased 6.4% year-on-year to 63,000 tons. Technically, copper market is in the fluctuation, short term copper price is near the resistance of interval and, we wait for a clarified situation. LME is $4720/30 and, in domestic is RMB 36900/37000.
DCE soybean overall tendency was weak, market supply and demand side was relatively flat; oil against meal ratio was hovering at 2.41. Northeast soybean price was mainly in downturn, purchase price at Heilongjiang area was at RMB 3700/ton, tower soybean export sales price was at RMB 3800/ton, current market high quality and high price pattern was plainly, spread between high and low protein was huge; we predicted the short term tendency would continue weak pattern. On soybean meal side, oil plants at port gradually started operating, overall quotation on spots remained stabilizing, partial area and oil plant continued slightly decreasing; spots and basis trading was thin. Since February import soybean port arrival hammer was low, predicted soybean port inventory would keep downward trend; soybean meal futures price was hard to raise or fall in a short tendency. As for operation: soybean No.1 contract references to interval between 3400-3600; oil and meal arbitrage may consider stop profit at 2.4:1.
Yesterday PP futures continued fluctuating, opened at 6405 and ended at 6423; trading volume decreased 156,000 lots to 1.438 million lots; holding increased 2784 lots to 618,000 lots. On spots side, yesterday domestic PP market price adjusted narrowly, partial supplies quoted weakly and, trading was under negotiation. Intraday overall momentum raised, most petrochemical enterprises’ producer price had no changes, and merchants shipped actively based on the costs, sprinted own plans and, trading volume was better than last week.
Current main quoted prices for wires of north, east and south markets are RMB 6200-6350/ton, RMB 6300-6450/ton and RMB 6450-6600/ton, respectively.
As for operation, current moving average system still arranges in long but, MACD continues tangling; recent tendency predicts to continue fluctuating.
                                                                     Dong LV (Investment Certificate NO. TZ008452)