Daily Report 150216 2016-02-16
Thursday copper price continued rally trend and, short positions decreased holdings. Yesterday released data showed US initial jobless claim in the week at 30 January was 285,000, exceeded expected 278,000. In addition, December month-on-month factory orders down range exceeded expectation to decrease 2.9% month-on-month, since market concerned about the US economy, yesterday US dollar index continued slumping, at lowest 96.259 point, hammer on the copper price continued weakening. On copper side, LME spots premium increased $1.25 to $4.75; inventory continued decreasing 2700 tons. Shanghai copper spots discount narrowed RMB 50 to discount RMB 100-20. Market participation was extreme low, demand in downstream was almost none; momentum on the end of the year was thick. Overall, we tend to copper price is in the first quarter rally trend and, we recommend seeking for the good opportunity to buy.
DCE soybean tendency tend to volatile, trading pace started to slow down before the Spring Festival; oil against meal ratio was 2.33:1, short term tendency was strong. Domestic soybean market trading activity was into the holiday pattern, market into the pattern on non-value and non-trading; the weak trend drove the market after holidays even more pessimism.
Domestic soybean meal spots price was overall stabilized, quotation in partial areas slightly reduced; spots price stabilizing and the price support demand still existed; market trading price before the holidays would still mainly on the merchant market, trading price might in slightly volatile and negotiation. February import soybean port arrival amount decreased but, under the impact of halting in the Spring Festival and stock up, spots would have variation after holidays. Quotation of oil plant at port was mainly at RMB 2600-2650/ton. As for holdings before holidays: we recommend do not holding soybean or holding partial arbitrage between long oil and short meal.
Yesterday PP futures opened high and went high; opened at 6301 and ended at 6409; trading volume decreased 187,000 lots to 1.028 million lots; holding decreased 35530 lots to 585,000 lots. On spots side, yesterday domestic PP market tendency was overall stabilizing. Partial petrifaction producer price slightly reduced which weakened the bolster to producer cost. Merchants were gradually in holiday, quotation decreased, reference price was mainly in stabilizing; downstream side was almost in the holiday, market trading activity gradually decreasing; trading and investing momentum was thin.
Current main quoted prices for wires of north, east and south markets are RMB 6250-6350/ton, RMB 6350-6450/ton and RMB 6550-6750/ton, respectively.
As for operation, current moving average system arranged in long; MACD red column extended as bullish trend.
                                                                          Dong LV (Investment Certificate NO. TZ008452)