Daily Report 210116 2016-01-26
Wednesday copper price slightly dropped, but for the neighboring market, the defensive effect from copper market was still plainly. Wednesday crude oil price continued slumping, crude oil market shares battle was intensifying since crude oil supply was heavily surplus and Iran was back to export, continued hammering the global economy and financial market. The panic index again set a record high at 27.59; this atmosphere was predicted to continue recently. Back to copper market, LME spots premium decreased 10.25 to $3.5, inventory turned to decrease 825 tons. Shanghai copper spots discount narrowed RMB 45 to discount RMB 220 – RMB 150, enterprises in downstream market entering volume was decreased compare to yesterday. On supply side, New Gold copper output was 45,000 tons in 2015, slightly lower than expected 45,000 – 51,000 tons. Its production plan was 37,000 – 42,000 tons in 2016. OZ Minerals output was 130,000 tons in 2015, lower than 176,500 tons in 2014 and, its production plan in 2016 was 105,000 – 115,000 tons. Copper price is likely to continue fluctuate in low since the traditional slack season and, recent panic atmosphere.
Technically, LME resistance is $4430, copper price will mainly continue fluctuating before rises above it.
DCE soybean ended recent strong tendency, oil against meal ratio was still hovering around the lower edge of recent fluctuation interval. Domestic soybean market continued downward trend, price in Bin County of Harbin City, Nehe city of Tsitsihar and other areas slightly dropped RMB 20/ton. Market trading and investing momentum was thin at the present stage, demand subjects took a dim view of market trend in the future which lowered the enter market enthusiasm, the unsalable Heilongjiang soybean was quite prominent and, partial grain areas was under semi-paralyzed. We regard soybean No.1605 contract was hard to have unilateral tendency before and after the Spring Festival.
Domestic soybean meal spots price were mainly in stabilization, partial areas and oil plants edged down at RMB 10-20/ton; stock up from feeding enterprises before Spring Festival hasn’t end yet and, spots from partial oil plants successively sold out, oil plants bolstered the price; soybean meal spots were easy to rally and hard to drop before the Spring Festival. But since the South America soybean is about to enter the market, price will still under hammer after the holiday. Oil against meal ratio broke through the lower edge of recent interval, short term tendency was downward. As for operation, we recommend arbitrage between oil and meal temporally stays in observing.
Yesterday PP futures laterally fluctuated, opened at 5900 and ended at 5896, trading volume decreased 387,000 lots to 1.452 million lots; holding decreased 34400 lots to 618,000 lots. On spots side, yesterday domestic PP market price variation was small, partial weakly traded. Futures went low in the mid market shattered practitioners’ sentiment; market observing sentiment was thick and restricted the trade. Plants in downstream received shipment appropriately and, was mainly in small orders.
Mainstream quoted prices for wires of north, east and south markets are RMB 6100-6200/ton, RMB 6200-6400/ton and RMB 6300-6450/ton, respectively.
As for operation, current moving average system twisted, MACD red column extended as stabilizing trend. We recommend paying attention on the performance near sixty days moving average.
                                                                    Dong LV (Investment Certificate NO. TZ008452)