Daily Report 311215 2015-12-31
Wednesday copper price continued reviving and, slightly increased at the end of market. On macro side, November existing house sales volume index decreased 0.9% month-on-month, lower than expected 0.7% growth. After data released, US dollar widely fluctuated and dropped afterwards. LME spots discount narrowed $1.5 to discount $2.5, inventory turned into decrease 100 tons. Shanghai copper spots were discount RMB 170 to RMB 110; downstream side slightly bought low price supply of goods before holidays, market momentum returned to thin after finishing receiving. On supply side, according to SMM news, the Chilean government indicated on Wednesday, Chile November copper yield was 486,000 tons, increased 1.7% year-on-year, since working modulus increased and “yield from major mines were stabilized”. Technically, we recommend focus performance on LME at $4750 and, if effectively rose through this price, next target is $4900; domestic cooper resistance is RMB 38000.
DCE soybean was hovering at the bottom of prior fluctuation, short term tendency was uncertain; oil against meal ratio continued increasing. Recent domestic soybean was weak out of stabilization, spots price were basically on track to narrowly adjust out of stabilization under stalemated supply and demand side. We regarded soybean No.1605 contract short term direction was uncertain but, since spots were stabilized nearing the holidays, trading momentum mainly stayed in observing.
Domestic soybean meal spots price were stabilized, domestic spots buying momentum slowed down, feed enterprises slowly stocked up, market observe sentiment was thick before holidays; market was still in the bearish momentum and, spots price were predicted to continue weaken out of fluctuation in a short term. Oil against meal ratio was 2.41:1. As for operation, we recommend paying attention on the volatile ceiling of grease; arbitrage between oil and meal paying attention to stop profit at the top edge of the interval.
                                                                         Dong LV (Investment Certificate NO. TZ008452)