Daily Report 301215 2015-12-30
Tuesday copper price continued rallying in night session, including LME ended at $4730.5, Shanghai copper ended at RMB 36490. The main reason is China has cut 200,000 tons copper spots sales volume in the first quarter of next year, which boosts the market. On macro side, yesterday released US December Conference Board's consumer confidence index was higher than expected 96.5, which indicated US consumers were satisfied with current and future economy and employment market. US dollar index rose yesterday but, didn’t plainly hammer the copper price for the time being. LME spots discount extended $0.25 to discount $1.75; inventory increased 1875 tons. Shanghai spots copper were discount RMB 180 to RMB 100, trading was gradually thinner after merchants finished basic trading.
Technically, if LME effectively rallied over $4750, next target would be $4900; domestic copper resistance was RMB 38000.

DCE soybean weakened further after breaking prior fluctuation; oil against meal ratio continued rallying. Recent domestic soybean was overall stabilized, northeast soybean started to weak after recent slightly increase; market shipment was slow, hammer on soybean to out of province was huge. Spots price was predicted to operate in stabilizing in a short term and, the upward scope was limited before Spring Festival. We regarded the fluctuation interval of soybean No. 1605 contract was already broken though, since spots were stabilized, we recommend staying in observing temporally as for operation.
Domestic soybean meal spots continued downward trend, domestic spots buying momentum slowed down; feed enterprises slowly stocked up; market observe sentiment was thick; market bearish momentum increased; spots price was predicted to continue weakening out of fluctuation pattern. Oil against meal ratio was 2.42:1. As for operation, we recommend focus the ceiling of fluctuation interval on oil against grease ratio; arbitrage between oil and meal pays attention on stop profit nearing the ceiling of interval.
Yesterday PP futures opened low and went higher, opened at 5720 and ended at 5825; trading volume increased 59038 lots to 1.672 million lots; holding decreased 48086 lots to 593,000 lots. On spots side, yesterday domestic PP market lateral adjusted, price fluctuated about RMB 50/ton. Though slumped oil price and futures opened low and went lower hammered the market, under the bolster from most petrifaction stabilized price, merchants shipped followed tendency and mainly decreased holdings, profits surrender scope was limited. Plants in downstream continued buying on requirement, insufficient trading exacerbated hammer on market downward trend; though actual quotation showed sign on slightly profit surrender, stalemated trading and investing was hard to change.
Current main quoted prices for wires of north, east and south markets are RMB 6350-6450/ton, RMB 6400-6650/ton and RMB 6700-7150/ton, respectively.
As for operation, current moving average system intertwined, MACD red column shortened; recent upward momentum weakened, possibility on fluctuation was high.
                                                                  Dong LV (Investment Certificate NO. TZ008452)