Daily Report 251215 2015-12-25
Macros Economy
News side was flat since Christmas holiday was approaching in Europe and US. US stock market edged down during the thin trading and investing momentum before Christmas holiday and, stopped the three continued upward trend. Energy stock narrowed the single week largest growth since October which dragged the whole market. S&P 500 edged down 3.3 point or 0.16% to 2060.99 point. US last week an initial jobless claim decreased 5000 to 267,000, created a four-week low point and was lower than expected 270,000, which indicated US labor market was strongly reviving and continued bullish. From situation in prior weeks, December initial jobless claim had raised compare to last month and, from condition in previous year, under the influence from holidays and other factors, employment data was usually less than satisfactory by the end of year, hence, December non-agriculture data might be weakened than last month, at about 200,000 or slightly lower. Since the influence from Christmas holiday, main market in US, Hongkong, Australia, Singapore and Europe will be closed intraday.
Thursday copper market trading and investing momentum was thin, overseas copper price slightly dropped. On fundamental side, LME spots discount narrowed $3 to $1.5, inventory continued decreased 1525 tons. Shanghai copper spots were discount RMB 160 to RMB 80, market trading gradually thinner and holiday momentum was thick. Technically, copper price will fluctuate recently; if LME effectively rises over $4750, next target is $4900; domestic copper resistance is still RMB 36350, RMB 38000.   

Yesterday PP futures opened high and went higher, opened at 5801 and ended at 5887; trading volume increased 1.054 million lots to 2.598 million lots; holding increased 59692 lots to 646,000 lots. On spots side, Petro China north china, south china and northeast increased producer cost, bolster to supply costs further increased and, merchants actively shipped followed upward trend. Plants in downstream was relatively excluded raised price, end demand was hard to have plainly improvement; insufficient actual quotation restricted the upward scope.
Current main quoted prices for wires of north, east and south markets are RMB 6200-6250/ton, RMB 6350-6450/ton and RMB 6500-6900/ton, respectively.
AS for operation, current moving average system turned to upward and, MACD red column extended. Though price hammered at 6000, the upward trend was strong, long positions can be held in cautious.
                                                                           Dong LV (Investment Certificate NO. TZ008452)