Daily Report 140915 2015-09-14
Last week copper price strong rallied and weekly raise range reached 5%. On macro side, US September Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index initial value was 85.7 as the lowest point since last 12 months, far away from estimated 91.1. It was mainly because slowdown of global economy and turmoil of financial market had made US consumers lost confidence. Though US labor market was continuously improving, the CCI was as well got high attention from Fed. From the latest August domestic economy data, domestic economy uptrend was still weak; the nation started to enhancing infrastructure and speeded the capital. Along with projects implementing, copper price might got bolster.
On fundamental side, last Friday LME spots premium raised to $20.25, domestic spots were discount 50 to flat. Last week three major exchanges copper inventories decreased 4790 tons, among which SHFE inventory increased 119657 tons, LME inventory decreased 16525 tons and COMEX inventory decreased 222 tons. Since recent copper price down the lowest point in years, mining company as Glencore Xstrata and free port announced to reduction of output or layoff, bolster from supply side to copper price started appearing.
Technically, copper price got bolster from five-day moving average system and is about to rally to $5800. Bolster level is $5370, $5200. Domestic copper bolster is RMB 40200.
DCE soybean was in weak tendency, market would come into mid-Autumn and National holiday within two weeks, the observe momentum was thick. Domestic soybean spots were stabilized, since market was in the period of short supply transforming to new grain came to market, the observe momentum from both supply and demand side was thick. Stale soybean purchasing scope narrowed, thus main weak tendency was hard to turn.
Soybean spots were volatile strong in this week, price in sales region was RMB 2650-2700/ton; August soybean import volume maintain in high point and inventory in port was reviving; market was under the hammer from large supply since current US soybean supply was sufficient; market was predicted under short circumstance and continue volatile weaken platform. We recommend keeping fluctuation mindset as for operation.

Last PP futures continued weaken. In upstream, up to Friday night, FOB Korea propylene average price was $650.5/ton. On device side, current operation rate was 80% and was lower than prior week. On spots side, last week PP futures price was loose in stabilization; crude oil price went low; trading and investing momentum on spots were thin; market price edged down. Petrifaction reduced EXW and bearish market. But recent devices overhaul were huge and plants in downstream stay in cautions, demand of covering was low; trading and investing was tepid.
Intraday main quoted prices for wires of north, east and south markets are RMB 7850-7950/ton, RMB 8000-8150/ton and RMB 7900-8160/ton, respectively.
As for operation side, current moving average system was twined and price continuously fluctuated narrowly; in the dilemma of ups and downs. In addition, short and long factors were complex on fundamental side, hard to have huge guidance on unilateral tendency. It was likely to continue fluctuation in the near future. We recommend waiting for a clearly market.
                                                                             Dong LV (Investment Certificate NO. TZ008452)