Daily Report 010915 2015-09-01
Macro Economy
Overall commodity market got bolster from regulation, price reversed and copper price ended high as well. From a side perspective, crucial cause was crude oil rallied. Intraday US crude oil output revised down in the first half year and, OPEC was preparing a negotiation with member countries for the concerning on oil price; crude oil price raised for three continues day which drive the whole commodity market. In addition, on Monday, China had issued new stimulating policy that downpayment on mortgages for a second home decreased from 30% to 20%; nation was still stimulating the economy. Military parade will be in Thursday and, related restraint will end in next week, anticipation on Chinese economy rally in the end of year existed. Intraday official PMI will be issued, estimated be lower 50, enhanced the possibility of China further launching policies.
On fundamental side, LME market closed on Monday; domestic spots were discount from RMB 70 to RMB 30, market was waiting for further movement after holiday. Latest news, Chile July copper output decreased 2.5% on yearly basis and, two main copper producer country reduced 2015 annual output plan since power problem; among which Zambia reduced from 14% growth to 5% growth at 740,000 tons; Congo reduced from 41% growth to 1% growth at only 102,000 tons. This year mine production is far away from estimation. On smelting side, Jiangxi Copper might start overhauling in September, earlier from prior year October to November. Technically, bolster on copper price was strong, we tend to consider copper price will further challenging $5300/40 main resistance point; in domestic was RMB 40000.
 
 
Copper
LME market was closed on Monday, LME market closed on Monday; domestic spots were discount from RMB 70 to RMB 30, market was waiting for further movement after holiday. Latest news, Chile July copper output decreased 2.5% on yearly basis and, two main copper producer country reduced 2015 annual output plan since power problem; among which Zambia reduced from 14% growth to 5% growth at 740,000 tons; Congo reduced from 41% growth to 1% growth at only 102,000 tons. This year mine production is far away from estimation. On smelting side, Jiangxi Copper might start overhauling in September, earlier from prior year October to November. Technically, bolster on copper price was strong, we tend to consider copper price will further challenging $5300/40 main resistance point; in domestic was RMB 40000.


Soybean
Soybean No.1 contract maintain volatile platform, oil meal went weak. Partial regions of soybean spots in northeast decreased RMB 10-20/ton; market went weak under the influence of new bean coming to market, short term spots were estimated to continue stabilize platform, unilateral trend was hard to formed in futures market.
Most regions of soybean meal spots decreased RMB 10-20/ton, spots in north China and Shandong Province were firmly; inventories from oil plants in south China and east China were huge, hammer on supply side was plainly. Regional differentiation in current soybean market was serious, soybean tendency was awkward in short term; since circumstance of US market was gloomy, DCE soybean was hard to from persistence rally trend. As for operation, we recommend trade in weak trend with volatile.
 
 
PP
Yesterday PP futures opened up low and went lower, opened at 7655 and ended at 7551; trading volume decreased 82960 lots to 389,000 lots; holding increased 7774 lots to 228,000 lots. On spots side, yesterday domestic PP market rose in stable trend and, partial price bid high at RMB 50-100/ton. Petro China south China and northeast EXW further raising; Sinopec south China would increase price in the beginning of next month and hammered upward trend; real market in downstream plants excluded high price supplies, trading was at low price to satisfied rigid demand.
For instance of wires, main quoted prices of north, east and south markets are RMB 7900-8000/ton, RMB 8150-8350/ton and RMB 8100-8300/ton, respectively.
As for operation side, current moving average system ranged in short; MACD green column shorten and was about to form golden cross as rally trend. Yet price was plainly hammered at moving average, recent price would fluctuate narrowly and we recommend staying in observe, operate after situation becoming clear.
 
 
                                                                        Dong LV (Investment Certificate NO. TZ008452)