Daily Report 100815 2015-08-10
Macro Economy
Last Friday US stock market edged down, S&P 500 index closed down 5.66 point, fell 0.27%, and quoted at 2077.90 point. On data side, US July non-agricultural working population increased 215,000 pieces, though less than forecast 225,000 pieces, the amount was still above 200,000 pieces; unemployment rate and labor participation rate in July was flat with prior month. In addition, non-agricultural working population in May and June rose. Market regarded this data increased possibility of Fed raise interest rate in September. There is only one month left to the next Fed meeting at present but, inflation is still in low level, whether interest rate will be raised in September is still in suspense.
In domestic, NBS data revealed that, China July CPI increased 1.6% on year to year base and created record high in this year, increase range extended compare to last month and, pork raised was the crucial reason to push up CPI. Furthermore, under the impact of base effect, external demands slowed down and commodity prices sluggish, China July import and export situation sharply went down, hammer on export especially obvious. In US dollar terms, July export slumped 8.3%, far away from forecast 1.5% and was the lowest level from February 2014. Import and trading surplus was worse than forecast. PBC issued second quarter monetary policy executive report, indicated that would further implemented stable monetary policy; protected not to occur the bottom of regional systemic financial risk; focused on stabilizing financial markets prospection and interest rate prospection; built neutral moderate monetary financial environment for economic structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading. We considered that, the worse data may brought more indeterminacy for the hard-earned investment rally, the short term stabilize cannot represent a long-term optimistic, non thoroughly economic restructure still hammered long term economy growth, short term stable growth still required for the investment, policies would continue easing.
Soybean No.1 contract is in strong tendency, oil meal fluctuates with overseas market; the uptrend momentum mainly driven by the port soybean flow direction inspection from nation, import soybean distribution stagnates. The blocked circulation of import soybean brought domestic soybean a chance to raise, current traders in production regions was reluctant to sell out, demand in south was plainly better than previous, which made soybean spots price in production regions raised RMB 200/ton in a single week, if incident of inspection on import soybean went further, it would further boosting the domestic soybean, we predicted that soybean No.1 contract would stronger the soybean sector in a short period.
Soybean meal spots was stabilize relative to futures, most price followed the trend from overseas market, soybean meal still bear the hammer from supply side, price would continue hovering at bottom and pay attention price boost from meals demand in later period, focus on the impact to soybean sector from Wednesday report. We recommend holding slight short term or observing on operation.

                                                                            Dong LV (Investment Certificate NO. TZ008452)