Daily Report 070815 2015-08-07
Copper
Thursday domestic and overseas copper market further narrowly fluctuated in low level, market lacked of trading momentum. Currently, market focuses on US employment data on Friday for seeking the basis of whether interest rate would raise in September. Wednesday US private employment data is not good as forecast, current market anticipation is the US employment amount will be over 200,000 pieces, there is a high anticipation on September interest rate raise, and we are waiting for the clearing situation. In addition, market is also paying attention on China stock market, the latest news, China Securities Finance will take out RMB 5 trillion to rescue market but, there still exists variety in China stock market, the risk is not ending.
On copper market, Thursday LME spots discount $8, inventories increase 775 tons. Domestic spots all in discount, on Thursday discount RMB 80 – RMB 10, import window closes. From the experience, every time the import window is opening, copper price rally trend will get bolster, but this time bolster strength is limited which reflects the current situation of domestic consumption weaken and, the concern on Chinese economy is the crucial reason. On supply side, since the Zambia and mines final decision is to reduce 10% -15% electric power supplies, the prior shutting down plant Sentinel under First Quantum reoperations, production plan in this year is 70,000 to 100,000 tons. Technically, copper price still in the weak trend, LME resistance is $5340 and in domestic is RMB 38500. We recommend to avoid macro risk on operation.
 
 
Soybean
Tendency of DCE soybean is in polarization, soybean No.1 contract soars, oil in weak and meal in strong; from 24 July, government starts to inspecting on soybean flow direction in port, the processing enterprises must hold import soybean processing license to purchase import, distribution of soybean is forbidden. Import soybean circulation blocked brings an opportunity on domestic soybean rising, current sales volume of market is plainly better than previous, price is rising, spots upward trend will continue in the future; it is predicted soybean No.1 contract will be stronger than soybean sector.
Soybean meal spots maintain stable in most areas, futures still in rally trend but, strength weakens, dragged from weaken overseas market and, hammer on the soybean meal from supply side, price will hover in the bottom; pay attention on price boosting from soybean demand in late period, we predicted meals tendency would in weaken volatile in short period. We recommend holding slight positions in short term or wait and see on operation.

 
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