Daily Report 060815 2015-08-06
Macro Economy
Yesterday US stock market closed high after four days down, performance from Technology Company is better than the anticipation and, data from service industry showed US economy was in rapid development. S&P 500 index raised 6.52 point or 0.31%, ended at 2099.84. Data revealed, US July ISM nonmanufacturing index increased to 60.3, indicated that service industry was in the fastest growing within 10 years; ADP issued July enterprise employment amount increased 185,000 pieces, record low from this April and, lower than the forecast 215,000 pieces. In addition, since dragged from strong US dollar, trade deficit in June extended 7.1% to $ 43.8 billion, highest level in three months. Fed Governor Powell indicated, whether support on interest rate raise in September was depended on economic data; since most manufacturing data in previous was strong, market still considered interest rate raise in September, Fed funds futures revealed that the possibility of interest rate raising in September jumped to 52%, US dollar index soared as well, national debt yield increased.
In European side, Greek Prime Minister Tsipras indicated that, Greek was in the final stage of new bailout agreement negotiation, the agreement may end the uncertainty from Greece and Euro zone. The situation in Greece now is, Greece wants to skip over bridging loan to achieve the third round negotiation and, EU claims there is high possibility of accomplishing bailout deal before 20 August. Greek bank sector still slumped in Wednesday, the lowest price in market nearly the down limitation at 30%, which had already down for 30% two continues day. But on account of the agreement had accomplished, probability from Greek bank industry risk diffusing under stock plunged was small.
Stock Index
Yesterday stock index retraced, bearish momentum weakened after hit the prior high. Though the domestic economy was weak, nation may enhance stimulus and, the measures from rescuing market, the bolster in low point was strong. As for news side although CSRC reopened financing, there was not likely to open in large scale in the rescuing timing and, under the problems left over by history; the market panic was under psychological in short period. The major pattern would still be volatile and, we recommend observe for the market direction in the middle term.

Domestic and overseas copper market investing and trading was thin in Wednesday, copper price edged down. China stock market weaken hammered copper market, besides, US dollar went strong in previous was also the reason. Current market focus on China and US, there is no significant sign from China stock market stop dropping and, the timing of US interest rate raise. US dollar fell back after soaring on Wednesday, US private employment amount was less than 200,000 pieces; in addition Fed Governor Powell indicated that Fed had not decided whether raise interest rate in September, which fluctuated US dollar; pay attention on official employment data in Friday.
Back to copper market, LME spots discount $9, inventories increase 3325 tons. Bolster from domestic spots slow down, Wednesday spots discount RMB 80 to RMB 10, the import window closes. The news on supply side is still tending to be bullish. Except for the 140,000 tons Hales under Codelco had impacted by striking; the latest news, Palabora copper mine from South Africa suspended operations since demonstration, which the annual output was 43,000 tons. But the leading factor from current market was still on macro side, in addition with most fund managers in Occident were on vacation, there was high possibility of copper price fluctuated in low. Technically, copper price was still in the downward trend, LME resistance level was $5350, in domestic was RMB 39,400. Before the capacity of rising over above price, copper price still weaken. We recommend avoiding macro risk as for operation.
DCE soybean fluctuated to strong, soybean No.1 contract edged down; soybean price in northeast raised RMB 40-60/ton, since supply from surplus grain in basic level was insufficient and, import soybean was prohibited, soybean continues rising; it was predicted futures price would bolstered from recent soaring spots, tendency would be independent of soybean sector.
Soybean meal spots raised RMB 20-50/ton in most areas, rebounding trend in futures slowed down, since market was mixed with short and long momentum, it was hard to form unilateral persistence market; if the pressure from supply side did not release, the price would further hovering in bottom, pay attention on price boosting from soybean demand in late period, we predicted meals tendency would in weaken volatile in short period. We recommend holding slight positions in short term or wait and see on operation.

                                                    Dong LV (Investment Certificate NO. TZ008452)