Daily Report 040815 2015-08-04
Macro Economy
Yesterday US stock market ended up low, impacted from commodities as crude oil and metal price falling, commodities sector dropped; AAPL in low point dragged down the US market. S&P 500 index dived 5.88 point or 0.28% to 2098.04 point. As data perspective, US consumer spending increased 0.2% in June and was the fifth month continue increasing, personal income continue increasing 0.4% for three months; July ISM manufacturing index fell from the five-month high point to a three-month low 52.7 point; Markit issued July US manufacturing PMI increased from 53.6 in June to 53.8, same as the initial value. Though the unstable factors in recent US economy data will not end the reviving, that the personal consumption spending continuously slows down, inflation is far away from Fed’s goal which may postpone the monetary deflation policy time, as for employment perspective, continues paying attention on non-agricultural data in this Friday.
In European side, July manufacturing PMI final value in Euro zone is 52; among which, German manufacturing PMI final value is 51.8, France's manufacturing PMI final value is 49.6. After the Athens stock exchange has been shut down for five weeks, it resumes trading on Monday; since the Greek financial system is severe shortage of asset and, partial overseas asset is waiting for evacuation, Athens composite drops 23% after opening, bank sector slumps 30% and hits the low point limitation, composite index plunges 16.2% at closing time; Greek has released from debt crisis temporally under the new bailout but, still has a far distance to economy reviving.
In domestic, Markit issued data revealed that, Caixin China PMI in July was 47.8, lower the 49.4 in June and forecast 48.3, and it was the fifth month lower the critical value 50.0, which showed the manufacturing operation was in a plainly slow down from July 2013, the long term economy situation is still not optimistic.
Monday copper price got bolster in falling; LME ended at 5192 after creating a new low 5142, decreased $32. Domestic copper market hit short covering situation in low point. Recent copper price fluctuated in low, pressure was still huge, which mostly was from macro side but, copper price was hard to drop under the bolster from fundamental side. On fundamental side, LME spots discounted $9, inventories increased 1050 tons. Domestic spots premium RMB 0-80, import window still opened. There was mostly bullish factor on copper enterprise decreasing yields, the latest news from subcontracting contract labor of Codelco striking from 21 July, except for Hales and Salvador copper mines, others all operating in normal. Hales put in to production on 2013 and last year copper yield was 141,000 tons. Salvador last year copper yield was 54,000 tons. Technically, copper price is still in the downward trend, target point is near $4800, resistance at $5300. Domestic copper price is likely to further dropping. We recommend to avoid macro risk recently.

                                                                   Dong LV (Investment Certificate NO. TZ008452)