Daily Report 030815 2015-08-03
Last week copper price fluctuated in low point and weakened in rally. On macro side, the US second quarter wage growth published in last Friday was the slowest in 33 years and, CCI dropped; In China, after HSBC PMI slumped again, official PMI hit a five-month low as well, economic growth in second half year still was gloomy, China stock market tumbled again recently, whether the stock market crash had finished was still a question, the concern on China economy still existed. Overall, macro risk existed.
On fundamental side, last Friday LME spots discounted $6, inventories increased 2000 tons. Domestic spots premium fell back to RMB 50-120, import profit decreased to double-digit. Domestic inventories in last week increased 1866 tons to 103,117 tons. CFTC positioning data indicated, long holdings decreased 1221 shares and, short holdings increased 1066 shares, bearish momentum in the market was thick.
As for supply side, news before dawn in 3 Aug, since the problem of power supply shortage, Kalumbila mining under the first quantum mining group will reduce the staffs to copper mine of Zambia and nickel mineral workers, about to reduce 1480 pieces working opportunities. Technically, copper market is still in the downward trend, bolster point is $5164, $5000 and $4800. Domestic copper price will also try RMB 37000 or RMB 35000. We recommend avoiding macro risk as for operation.
DCE soybean following the overseas market in bottom volatile, soybean No.1 contract in strong tendency; domestic soybean spots was strong out of stabilize and, port inspection on import soybean trading flow had also boosted the price, but currently soybean No.1 market was mixed with long and short, in the dilemma of raising and decreasing; and for supervising on import soybean need to pay attention on persistence and Intensity later, hence, we do not recommend over bullish soybean No.1 futures.
Soybean spots rallied after slumping last week, overall tendency was weak, market trading was thin after price retracement, hammer on north area was light, price in south China still weakens, soybean port arrival amount in August to September from market anticipation was huge and, port inspection on import soybean trading flow, hammer on raw material market was hard to eliminate in a short time; trade soybean meals in retracement as short period tendency. As for operation, we recommend hold slight position in short terms or wait and see.

PP futures fluctuated in last week. In upstream, FOB Korea propylene average price was $847.5/ton up to Friday. As for device side, current operation ratio is 88%, higher than last week. On spots side, domestic market price adjusts in weaken last week and, dropping scope narrows. In the beginning of week, along with international crude oil falling, futures price dropping as well, bearish momentum is thick, terminal plants purchase is flat, agency ships in low price. Supplies of goods decrease in the end of month, petrifaction enterprise backs to sale by royalty, market price stops falling and in stabilize, plants receiving appropriately, trading and investing is improving but still lacks of increasing bolster.
Current main quotation of wires, north market was RMB 7950-8050/ton, east market was RMB 8000-8200/ton and south market was RMB 8150-8300/ton.
As for operation, current moving average system still permutes in short, MACD exposure extends down as bearish formation. We recommend previous short positions can be further held as for operation.  
                                                                   Dong LV (Investment Certificate NO. TZ008452)