Daily Report 230715 2015-07-23
Wednesday copper price hammered from shorten momentum and ended at 5356, dropped $97. Domestic copper price dropped to RMB 38,800 as well. On macro side, market still focus on the timing of US dollar raising interest rate. US stock market will publish corporate performance in this week, after the pessimistic data from IBM, data as Microsoft and Apple on Wednesday is far away from expectation; as we said in April, partial reason still is on the strong US dollar, and this decreases US enterprise overseas incoming value. At present market focuses on Federal Reserve meeting on next Tuesday and Wednesday, discussion will focus on rate raising in September or December; we tend to the latter, in a short period US dollar exchange rate need to be clarified, we put 98.2 at the crucial point. Back to copper market, LME inventories slightly decrease 500 tons, domestic spots premium RMB 220-300 at the highest level in this year, import window exists is the bolster element to market. Newest quarterly report reveals, second quarter copper yield of BHP decreases 7.45 on year to year base, first quarter increases 11.14%. The boosting Escondida in the first half year start to decrease 27% in the second half year and, yields will decrease 290,000 tons in next year. Yield from BHP in fiscal year 2016 will decrease 200,000 tons. Consider of hydraulic limitation in Chili, copper yield will be further impacted. Technically, recent copper price will down to test the bolster point and if bolster is effectively becomes the focus point, we are waiting for clarifying. 

DCE soybean weak in night session followed the overseas market, short period tendency lacked of direction; soybean No.1 contract continued weak platform, though partial spot area slightly raised, the actual market trading was poor, south purchase lacked of demand which hard to boost the price, no relief on the difficulty in domestic soybean export sales, soybean No.1 contract trend was not optimistic.
Soybean meal spots stabilized in most areas, terminal purchase in a thick observing mindset, trading was thin; US market stabilized temporally had bolster the market but, it was hard to release the hammer on domestic raw material supply sufficiency; current soybean meal spot was RMB 2776-2850/ton, price in north was relatively firm, hammer on inventory in south was huge, price tend to weaken; meals were in the adjustment phase after rallying, market direction was uncertain in a short time. As for operation, we recommend observe or trade in short term.
Yesterday PP futures opened up low and went higher, opened at 8125 and ended at 8240, trading volume increased 56,766 lots to 331,000 lots, holding decreased 15,258 lots to 249,000 lots. In upstream, FOB Korea propylene edged up $15, average price was $855.5/ton. As for spot side, yesterday domestic PP market continues weaken adjustment, price in partial areas slipped RMB 50/ton. Crude oil closed high and futures opened high went higher, boost to investors’ confidence was limited, merchants surrendered slight profit for shipment, tendency in future market was uncertain. Downstream plant purchase still weak, actual quotation satisfied rigid demand production according to orders.
For instance of wires, main quoted prices of north, east and south markets are RMB 7950-8050/ton, RMB 8150-8350/ton and RMB 8200-8300/ton, respectively.
As for operation, MACD green column shorten and is about to form gold cross, it is highly possibility sideways fluctuation recently.
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