Daily Report 210715 2015-07-21
Stock Index
Yesterday stock index was in a weak tendency, discount to spot index raised; futures market may had concern on quitting from National team. Afterwards, CSRC refuted the rumor in noon. We regarded if the national team quitted would bring harm to stock market. But if the harm existed there would be no uncomplicated quitting. It is hard for unilateral dropping. In upward perspective, market is about to unconvinced by the old story and the new one is still on the way, which is hard to attract the continuously flowing asset; in addition, lots of accounts are interdicted in June, long momentum in market is weaken than before. Now stock market is in a sweeping form, it is a good opportunity for capital market eliminating the false and find out true valued company when choosing an individual share; it will be hard to see collective unilaterally bull or bear.
As for operation, since yesterday futures slumped and discounted in a huge amount, overall in the volatile mindset and intraday shall not continues over shorten.
Monday copper price edged down but got the bolster. Relative to the raising from US dollar, copper price is still in a strong performance. The expectation of rate rising in end of year had bolster the US dollar increased continuously six days, the US dollar index came to resistance point at 98.2; considered from slumping of gold in Monday, market expectation to US dollar rate rising had digested mostly; we regarded there would be variation in the future. Back to copper market, LME spot discounts $21.25, inventory decreases 550 tons. Domestic spot premiums RMB230-280, increases RMB30, still in a high level within this year; synthesize copper yield and import volume from June and first half year, domestic spot supply is still tight, import window is opening, China import increasing will be the bolster to market. Newest data reveals international copper research group report: breach of April refined copper is 81,000 tons, aggregate surplus in prior four months is 62,000 tons. From the miner’s quarterly report published recently, drought weather in Chili is still effecting on yields.
Technically, copper price is in the rally trend and will stay in adjustment for a short period; we are still waiting for the signal of adjustment ending. We recommend continue holding previous long positions but have good control on fund management.

DCE soybean rallied in night session; soybean No.1 contract maintained in weaken fluctuation, merchants owned inventories, actual trading in market was thin and, South area lacked of demand under the impact of import soybean; in addition, overseas market retraced, hard to say soybean No.1 contract was in optimistic.
Soybean meal spots generally dropped RMB 20-50/ton, US market was in bearish and domestic raw material supply was sufficient speed up the retracement; current soybean meal spot was strong in North and weak in South, hammer from inventory in North oil plant was seldom, aspiration of insisting price is strong; hammer from inventory in South was huge, the retracement scope was larger; this rebounding tendency of meals was over, market would back to the contradiction of supply and demand. We recommend keep in observing or in short term as for operation.
Yesterday PP futures opened up low and went high, opened at 8101 and ended at 8175; trading volume increased 33,756 lots to 275,000 lots, holding decreased 14,090 lots to 268,000 lots. In upstream, propylene price leveled off. As for device side, around 600,000 tons overhauled devices from YCPC re-operated, 200,000 tons of Shanghai Petrochemical overhauled, overall operation ratio slightly raised. As for spots perspective, intraday domestic PP market fluctuated out of stable. No further price adjustment policy in petrifaction enterprises, PP futures fell after opening, trading and investing was thin. Agency mostly reduced holdings, surrendered part of the profits in actual market to promote trading; no improvement in downstream demanding, overall trading was light.
Main quoted wires prices of north, east and south markets are RMB 8000-8200/ton, RMB 8150-8350/ton and RMB 8150-8300/ton, respectively.
As for operation, moving average system still permutes in short but, MACD green column shortens, daily K line continuously ended in cross line and positive line, strong bolster at 8100; overnight crude oil price dropped, the short holdings may further kept in cautious; if holdings and volumes continue reducing and lacking of downturn momentum, may consider about stop-profit and closed positions.
                                                                  Dong LV (Investment Certificate NO. TZ008452)