Daily Report 150715 2015-07-15
Macro Economy
China central bank published data in Tuesday revealed that the social financing scale in June of China was RMB 1.86 trillion, only after the Jan RMB 2.0459 trillion, and exceeded the expectation RMB 1.4 trillion, prior data amended from RMB 1.22 trillion to RMB 1.2196 trillion; M2 raising speed on year to year base increased to 11.8%, short term, both medium and long term loan from financial institutions loans had plainly growth; which indicated the economy was further closing to stabilized; in the future, policy would adopted directional measures to change the problems of funding period and structure mismatch under the further easing.
In addition, National Bureau of Statistics of China will publish the second quarter GDP and June industrial output value in intraday 10:00 am, market expectation GDP will grow 6.8% on year to year base and this will be the lowest data since first quarter of 2009; June industrial added value expects to grow 6% on year to year base and in May it is 6.1%; June total retail sales of consumer goods expects to grow 10.2% on year to year base and it is 10.1% in May.
Stock Index
Yesterday stock index continues volatile, since previously CCI500 slumped and the resumption shares mainly state bullish news, tendency is strong. But overall upward momentum is weak, it is hard to further rally, and will not fall back to prior low point. In prediction, market seems not likely to believe in prior stories and new ones are still on the way, there is no special bullish or new expectation currently. Besides, investors suffered great losses previously, funds and confidences got duplicate hammer which would not revolve in a short time. Technically, if continuously uptrend, peoples entered in IF contract on 30 June will get release comprehensively, then the pressure of selling would be huge. But market confidence will gradually recover if there is bullish news from metaphase statement in later period. We consider the subsequent market will be fluctuant temporally.

Tuesday copper price fluctuates in high points. The panic mindset from Chinese stock market disaster gradually fade away, along with more enterprises releasing from stock market, there might be fluctuation. Pay attention on China macro data which will be issued this morning, we consider the worst time of China economy had past following a serious of projects settle down. As for fundamental side, LME spot discounts $12.5, inventory increases 6750 tons, domestic copper spot discounts RMB 100, and supply continues increasing. As for supply side, minister of information department of Zambia indicated in Tuesday that they will import 100 megawatts of electricity, for remitting the influence to domestic large scale copper, cobalt ore projects from power rationing, and this will relieve the supply reducing from power rationing in a certain level.
Technically, copper price is in a rally trend, if the bolster at $5500 is effective, copper price will upward to $6000. In domestic, if bolster at RMB 39,500 is effective, price will rise to RMB 43,000. We recommend tend to long holdings as for operation.
Yesterday PP futures opened up low and went lower, opened at 8280 and ended at 8195; trading volume increased 29,082 lots to 353,000 lots, holding increased 7714 lots to 275,000 lots. In upstream, FOB Korea propylene decreased $5, average price was $855.5. As for spot, there is no plainly variation in yesterday domestic PP price. Overnight oil price dropped but PP futures opened up high, practitioners did not have plainly prediction to future market. Majority merchant shipped at market price; as for downstream, plants purchase based on orders, overall trading was flat.
Intraday main quotation of wires, north market was RMB 8050-8250/ton, east market was RMB 8350-8600/ton and south market was RMB 8400-8550/ton.
As for operation, current moving average system formed bearish trend and it was highly possibility of further weakening.
                                                                  Dong LV (Investment Certificate NO. TZ008452)