Daily Report 100715 2015-07-10
Copper
Copper price soared in Thursday, China stock market stabilized rallied and the turnaround from Greece both boomed the market. Thursday China stock market soared, assets in all dimensional entered the market and polices like positions limitation, holdings reduction, China stock nearly down to the bottom; Greece gave a new proposal in Thursday which was sad closer to creditors’ requirement, made a possibility to avoid Grexit. We are optimistic on these two points, we considering the short period macro risk is releasing.
As for fundamental perspective, LME spots discount $13.5, inventories increase 1800tons, domestic copper spots premium decrease to RMB 170-230, supplies are increasing but, current import profit is still above RMB400, indicates domestic fundamental is better than overseas, and is bolstering copper price. Since drought lead to water level in hydropower station sharply decreases, the second largest copper producing country in Africa – Zambia, planning start to reduce mine power supply at the earliest next week, maximum reduction may at 30%. The problem from supply side will bolster copper price. Technically, LME copper price raises through $5600, if this price bolster is efficacious, copper price will further rising to $6000. Domestic copper price rises through RMB40000, if bolster efficacious, copper price will as well rise to RMB43000. We recommend take long holdings as for operation.

 
Soybean
Soybean No.1 contract continues strong rally, recovers from falling scope from this week, retaliatory rallies after irrational slumping; recent domestic spots tend to weak in a stabilized trend, lack of demand; but the futures price overacts, futures price discounts, soybean No.1 contract need to back to rationality.
Soybean meal spots raise quotation in partial areas, spots performance is better than futures market; coastal oil plant operation rate is high but, there are lots of non-execution contract previously, in a short period partial oil plant will mainly focus on executing contracts; along with rebounding in market, trading will turn better, short period meal price is expected to back the rally trend. As for operation, we recommend take slightly short positions.
 
 
Natural Rubber
Yesterday Shanghai rubber opened high and rallied, contract 1509 and 1601 respectively ended at 12135 point and 13195 point. News side: CPCA data stated in the first half year, entirety sales volume of domestic passenger vehicle reached 953,000 pieces; increased 7% on year to year base, and slipped 7.6% compared to 14.6% increasing scope at same period last year. In addition, previously we emphasized the government rescue policy, Iran nuclear negotiation came into a deadlock made the commodities immense fluctuant.
Overall, domestic commodities will drive by short period systematic risk; we recommend inventors take solid control on risks and operate in short terms.
 
 
PP
Yesterday PP futures opened up high and went higher, opened at 8061 and ended at 8355, trading volume increases 349,000 lots to 511,000lots, holding decreases 40,370 lots to 250,000 lots. In upstream,
FOB Korea propylene decreases $10, average price is $870.5/ton. As for spots side, yesterday domestic PP futures price partially drops. Petrifaction pricing in main areas transfer to list selling, quotation is in weak trend. Futures rising slightly drives spot market, merchant shipping actively, investing and trading is turning better. Auction in Shenhua Baotou completes, no failed auction, transaction price in regions of north China is RMB 8070-8135, and in east China is RMB 8210-8290/ton.
Intraday main quotation of wires, north market is RMB 8000-8100/ton, east market was RMB 8150-8300/ton and south market was RMB 8200-8350/ton.
As for operation, resent market is effected by systematic risk, fluctuation is immense, although price rising, the closing price had not over the pressure section at 8400-8500, pattern tends to in shorten trend; but overnight crude oil raises, intraday market may transfer to disadvantage direction, we recommend close positions in time to circumvent risks.
 
                                                                  Dong LV (Investment Certificate NO. TZ008452)