Daily Report 240615 2015-06-24
Macro Economy
China HSBC manufacturing industry PMI initial value is 49.6, hit a three-month high, prediction is 49.4 and previous value is 49.2. This data continue indicates demanding side slightly rally, new orders and outputs both rally above the PMI. Combining with previous data, states that enterprises already began to restock; but employment sub-index hit a largest slump range over six-years, which indicate previous economy pressure still transmit to upstream, easing policy later especially QE is still necessary.


Copper
Tuesday domestic and overseas copper price started to rally including LME ended at 5752 and increased $97. On macro side, Greek issue earned progressing, both side of debts were trying to make final accomplishment before EU summit meeting on Thursday – which declined the market risk. In addition, Tuesday global PMI performance is positive; U.S. new houses sales over the prediction, comfort the market concern of copper consumption. Tuesday Fed director Powell indicated the earliest interest rate raise day is Sep, enlarged the momentum of U.S. dollar; but considering the global economy was turning better and the risk easing, there was a certain possibility of U.S. dollar went weak.
Back to the copper market, LME spots premium at $17, inventories decrease 1225tons, domestic copper spots premium RMB240-300 in this-year high level, indicates that domestic supply is tight. In this May, China copper import amount is 275,000tons, decreases 2.68% compare to last year; previous 5months import decreases 12.4%; China import continues decreasing makes most domestic inventories clearing out. Recent import window had opened will increase China import; will show the bolster impact on global copper market.
Technically, after slumping 10% the copper price may enter the rebound stage, recent LME copper price will hit the resistance on $5880, and domestic copper price will also hit RMB42700. We recommend take long positions as for operation.


Soybean
Soybean No.1 contract fell back after gradually rebounding, market held different voices to sowing area decreased; yesterday partial area spots started weaken, market enter the small peak in selling grain the second time. Under the influence of spots, it was predicted market will remain weak pattern in a short period, operation on soybean No.1 contract remain shorten around warehouse receipt area and strategic long holdings when deep retracement.
Soybean meal increased after stagnation, overnight session profit taking partial increase; since the tendency was plainly weaker than the outer and, recent U.S. soybean remained rally; import costs increased; crush margins in domestic oil plant loss critically and circumstance as grease trend is weak; we remain the recommend of meals will gradually increase.
As for operation, we recommend soybean meal may take long holdings appropriately.


PP
Yesterday PP futures remain volatile, opened at 8510 and ended at 8550, trading volume decreased 68,726 lots to380,000 lots, holdings decreased 21,744lots to 385,000lots. In upstream side, FOB Korea PP slightly increased $5, average at $955.5/ton. As spots side, yesterday domestic PP market general purpose material price slipped, other sources remain stable. Partial general purpose material from Sinopec East China, Central China and South China decreased, bolster of market source costs weakened, merchants shipped in low quotation. After the holiday, the demand of downstream plant purchase is limited, real market is tepid.
For instance of wires, main quoted prices of north, east and south markets are RMB 8500-8600/ton, RMB 8700-9100/ton and RMB 8800-9000/ton, respectively. Fundamental side remain weaken. As for operation side, current price narrowly fluctuates around moving average system, MACD fluctuant lacks of direction, recent momentum is low from neither upstream nor downstream; we recommend waiting for a clearly situation.


                                                           Dong LV (Investment Certificate NO. TZ008452)