Daily Report 170615 2015-06-17
Macro Economy
Yesterday Shanghai stock dived 3% and fell 4900; this retracement was influenced by the tightened fund from hitting new stock; logically, this bull market did not fundamentally alter. But on macro side indistinctly showed presently stabilized, if real economy later do continues improving, stock capital spin-off and easy policy slow down may lead to stock market periodicity adjustment.
Tuesday domestic and overseas copper price performance was weak, copper price continues downward trend under hammered new shorten. As for macro perspective, Greek problem is still a huge issue; the Greek authority’s attitude is tough and will not present new scheme, it seems hard to accomplish new agreement on Thursday Euro Central Bank meeting; Eurozone officers are discussing hold emergency summit on Sunday to solve the Greek crisis; Greek exit Euro appears to imminent. The U.S. real estate data is optimistic, market focus on the Wednesday federal reserve meeting and tend to raise interest rate in Septemper, even predict will raise rate second time in Nov; U.S. dollar is in bullish trend.
Back to copper price, LME price seems to all in bullish. LME spots premium surge to $29.5, inventories increase 4200tons, LME inventory is forming an increasing trend. Among LME major reporting, long position sold and short position bought, the bear trend is strong. On supply side, Kazakhstan output in previous 5months increased 41.5% to 151,900tons compared to last year, Chile Collahusi copper mine ended one-day-long strike and get back to daily production.
Technically, LME copper price fell through $5800 and opened the downward trend to $5500. Domestic copper price fell through RMB42,000 and as well continues fell to RMB40000. We recommend short positions can be further held.

Overnight U.S. soybean rallied, boomed under the influence that soybean qualified rate decreased and sowing was slowly. In domestic, after Soybean No.1 contract fell through RMB4200 the downward trend turned slower, we regarded there is limitation under RMB4200 on futures operation side. Although current market held large divergence in future price, factors as spots firmly and future surplus grain decreased, soybean output in new season did not reach the expectation did not bolster a continuing downward trend. It is predicted market will remain width fluctuation in a short period; short positions may take profits under RMB4200.
Soybean meal spots partially slight decreased, market was under high supply pressure; trading was thin; oil plant in high operating rates made whole recent soybean meal spots market in weakness. As for sell operation side, since crush margins losses and U.S. market revives, it may bring a short period reviving trend to sell operations. As for operation, we recommend previous short positions can be reduced appropriately.
Yesterday PP futures opened up flat with fluctuation, opened up RMB 8649, ended up RMB 8591, trading volume is 706,000 lots and holdings is 490,000lots. As for the spot market, intraday domestic PP price remain stable with slight volatile, overall high points went down slightly. Earlier today PP futures price soared that investors shall wait cautiously. Partial wires prices quotation increased slightly. But the futures price fell afterwards that hammered momentum from plant purchasing; spots investing and trading was limited, merchant following the market and made shipment actively; price negotiated per holding.
Main quoted wires prices of north, east and south markets are RMB 8700-8800/ton, RMB 9000-9100/ton and RMB 8900-9100/ton, respectively.
For operation strategy: currently price is narrowly volatile over the moving average line, MACD red-column shortens show lacking of upward momentum. Currently is likely to continue volatile and we recommend waiting for now. 
                                                                   Dong LV (Investment Certificate NO. TZ008452)