Daily Report 150615 2015-06-15
Macro Economy
National Bureau of Statistics launched unemployment rate in metropolis in May is around 5.1%, decreased compared with Apr. State Prime Keqiang Li host the national response of climatic variation and energy saving leading group meeting on 12 June, which indicated that will expand environmental protection industry; control strictly on expanding of high energy consumption and high emission industry; build up an energy saving and low-carbon industry system, cultivate new growth points.
In addition, along with real estate market downstream stabilized and rallied; data in other areas is more booming, the economy short term bottom is getting closer.
 
 
Copper
Last week domestic and overseas copper price hit the retraced low point again then fluctuant narrowly in low position. On a macro level, USDX lost the direction temporally lacking the guidance to copper price.
LME spots substantially premium to $19.5, domestic spots also lost premium, last weekend was par to premium RMB60, the three commodity futures exchanges inventory in last week decreased to 9454tons as the minimum weekly decreasing amount from May; among LME decreased 1100tons, SHFE decreased 10,600tons. China imports hard to increase hammer the overseas market. Moreover, consumption off season is approaching, U.S. trading premium had decreased 6cents/pound from one month ago to 5.875cents/pound. Newest information is Peru ministry of energy and mines indicated las bambas copper mine under MMG Limited will put into production in the end of 2015, which as the largest mine output in the recent years, project annual output is over 400,000ton.
Technically, domestic and overseas copper price is near the key bolster position, LME is $5860, domestic is RMB42,500 and if this price may fell through, copper price downward space will be open. Resistance is $6020 and RMB43,500 respectively. As for operation, we recommend continue holding short positions and wait for the clear direction.


Soybean
Last Friday Soybean No.1 contract night session rallied slightly, market showed a large divergence to the judgment on price in the future; on one side, the output in this year decreased plainly, spots price firmly. On the other hand, since the weather situation and more farms replant soybean from corn, the areas may larger than expected; moreover the surplus grain level is high than same period last year, State Reserves soybean auction still approaching, purchase demand in South is weak, spots in the future facing sales pressure and; current soybean warehouse receipt is sufficiently, it’s hard to form the force selling market.
Soybean No.1 contract aggravate width volatile, be cautious of space under RMB4200. Soybean meal spots continues dropping, since from Jun to Aug there was a huge amount of soybean arrival the port, oil plant had high operating rates, terminal demands slow reviving, overall soybean meal remained weak trend. But in the short period, crush margins losses on operation side may limit the downward trend.
As for operation, we recommend previous soybean meal short positions can be reduced appropriately.
 
 
PP
Last week PP volatile with gravity moved up. From the upstream perspective, FOB Korea propylene prices increased slightly, average price was $950.5/ton. As for device side, current operation rate is about 84.7%, no big disparity from previous week. On the spots side, there’s no clearly good news for demand side; in the beginning of week, futures price went low and majority merchants shipped in surrendering part of the profits; along with crude oil futures price increasing the market tend to be waiting; spots quoted high in advance coordinating with the upward trend. In the weekend, partial petrifaction raised ex-factory price cautiously, downstream plant only bought long positions, investing and trading was thicker.
Main quoted wires prices of north, east and south markets are RMB 8700-8800/ton, RMB 8850-9100/ton and RMB 8950-9150/ton, respectively.
For operation strategy:  current price broke through the moving average system, MACD formed golden crossing as rebounding trend. But current crude oil price is volatile and there is bull limit on demand side; it is predicted recent price will continue volatile trend.

 
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