Daily Report 110615 2015-06-11
Macro Economy
Central Bank website issued working paper in 9 June indicated that due to export growth slowed down; real estate development investment reduced quickly; bank lend in caution to partial industry and other factors, the whole year growth and inflation speed both slowed down, but it was expected economic in second half year be stabilized. In addition, China's National Bureau of Statistics will publish the data of industry added value in May and retail, sale, fixed investments from Jan to May in at 1:30 this afternoon.
It was predicted that industry added value year-on-year growth of 6%; total retail sales of consumer goods may off the nine-year low with year-on-year growth of 10.1%; fixed investments year-on-year growth of 11.9%. Pay attention on relevant data.
Overnight U.S. soybean taken profit and closed down, though monthly supply and demand report data was lower than expected, operation was flat. In domestic market, soybean No.1 contract price short-period fluctuant under RMB4300, recently soybean meal price remain stable will limit futures price downward space; it was recommended to keep holding previous short positions and gradually reducing it under RMB4300.
Soybean meal spots quotation in various areas remain stable, since crush margins losses on operation side, spots will plainly resistant dropping and becoming a bolster to short-period price; currently downstream purchase is cautious; it was predicted June imported soybean port arrival amount will continues increasing, which still hammers forward price.
As for operation, we recommend to reduce previous short holdings of soybean meal appropriately. 

Natural Rubber
Yesterday Shanghai rubber price continues slightly volatile in a period of time, U.S. dollar spot trading period price leveled off: domestic spot price is RMB1650-1660 (0); domestic cargo price is RMB1600-160 (0); RMB compounded rubber is RMB 12200-12300 (+100); Singapore cargo price is RMB1630-1640 (+10); overseas plant cargo price is RMB1650-1680 (0).
The above factors indicated: natural rubber spot price maintained stable; as for Shanghai rubber operation side macro funds occupied the leading position, industry funds continues to short. Futures price is hard to impact by information as weather speculation and is volatile in a high position, we recommend mainly short-period trading.
Yesterday PP futures price opened up high and went volatile higher, opened at RMB8450, ended at RMB8586, trading volume increased 285,000 lots to 506,000 lots, and positions decreased 1642 lots to 439,000 lots. From the upstream perspective, FOB Korea propylene prices decreased $5; average price was $945.5/ton. As for the spots market, yesterday domestic PP price adjusted narrowly, partial quotation was slightly high. PP futures price opened up high and went higher that booming up the market and merchants tentatively quoted high. Downstream plants wait for purchasing, no plainly increasing on trading volume temporally.
Main quoted wires prices of north, east and south markets are RMB 8650-8800/ton, RMB 8750-8900/ton and RMB 8700-9000/ton, respectively.
For operation strategy: yesterday price broke through moving average system, MACD red-column extended further, we recommend wait for performance of RMB8500-8800 pressure range.
                                                           Dong LV (Investment Certificate NO. TZ008452)