Daily Report 050615 2015-06-10
Macro Economy

Yesterday U.S. stock ended up low, S&P 500 index dropped to lowest point from the past 4month, crude oil and metal price dropped which hammered the commodity stock and, Greece proposed to postpone the debt repayment; S&P 500 index ended down 18.23 or 2095.84 points by 0.86%. As data side, last week the amount of US first-time claims for jobless benefits decreased 8thousand to 276,000, predicted amount was 278,000, which indicated a still firm labor market but, IMF urged FED postpone the rate raising time to first half year of 2016, which also claimed US dollar was over valuated moderately, further plainly appreciation will be “detriment”.
Meanwhile, IMF decreased this year U.S. economy growth rate forecast from 3.1% to 2.5%, a second time decreasing from past 3month. Currently U.S. employment is in optimistic situation, reviving of real estate is momentum, speed of inflation rally afterwards will be crucial for rate rising, this procedure is predicted to be continuous along with oil price remain reviving.
On the other hand, in May U.S. non-farm employment amount is going to be published in tonight, expected to increase 225,000 pieces, which shall pay significant attention on.


On Thursday, domestic and overseas copper price cast off consolidation rang with continuously downward. As for fundamental side, LME spots premium $8.75, inventory slightly decreased 525ton. Although domestic copper spots premium slightly, the transaction seems lacking of fluency. On the whole, weak consumption of China copper has been the largest momentum to copper price downward trend.
As we indicated in May, domestic air-condition, cable industry entered the off-season in advance and, issue of domestic copper relevant industry excess capacity had burst again. In addition, copper supply passed the worst period, in next month OLYMPIC DAM will go into operation with full capacity, along with other new released capacity, all of which will hammer the copper price.
Technically, domestic and overseas copper priced dropped 5-month average line, thus cause to a downward potential. Previous short holdings are recommended to be held further.


Soybean No.1 contract continues dropping, contract 1509 price dropped in medium market gets bolster at RMB4300, fluctuant range is RMB4300-4470/ton; recent soybean spots price rally lightly, in Heilongjiang Province grain cleaning price is RMB4000-4140/ton, previous short holdings can be reduced below RMB4300. Soybean meal spots dropped slightly, mainstream quotation is RMB2500-2600/ton, impacted by grease width fluctuant recently, soybean meal short term volatile tends to weak, lacking of orientation and, supply in the future is abundant which will continues hammer the price.
In terms of operation, we suggest investors who hold soybean meal short when the price rallies, previous short holdings are recommended to be held further.
                                                                                   Dong LV (Investment Certificate NO. TZ008452)