Daily Report 040615 2015-06-10
Macro Economy
Yesterday U.S. stock market ended up high, banking and insurance shares edged up following with U.S. treasuries yields, investors speculated Greece may establish an agreement with creditors, S&P 500 index ended up 4.47points or rose above 2114.07 basis points by 0.21%. In Apr U.S. trading deficit decreased 19.2% to $40.9 billion, decreasing range larger than expected; in May ISM non-manufacturing index decreased to a low point from past 13months. Even though the data is mixed, FED issued the Beige Book that US economy maintain growing from begin of Apr to end of May although it was impacted by US dollars upvaluation and oil-gas industry slumped, and it was predicted various fields will remain moderate increasing, which implied FED held a optimistic expectation on economic. But reserve bank presidents from Chicago and Saint Louis indicated that, U.S. economy still need a certain stimulus, currently there’s a high barrier of raising rates, it’s proper for market pushing back the timing of the first rate hike. As for Euro side, Macro Draghi claims there’s achievement of QE, aims to execute it comprehensively, meanwhile he emphasizes Greece and creditors need to establish a forceful agreement. ECB maintain the benchmark rate and, predicates in this year, Euro Zone inflation rate is 0.3%, in Mar prediction rate is 0; in this year, GDP will increase to 1.5% same as prediction in Mar.
Under circumstance of the series events, Euro soared to recent highs, USD index fell back.
 
 
Copper
On Wednesday, domestic and overseas copper price continued weak trend, specifically indicated on dropping after slightly rally, among which the LME price ended at $6003.5, dropped USD37. Domestic Aug contract ended up at RMB43470. From analysis side, on Wednesday, OECD decreased global economy growth forecast from 3.7% in last Nov to 3.1% and, decreased growth forecast in year2016 to 3.8%; claimed in Q1, global economy growth trend is weak, the concern of market lacking of commodity demand might hammer copper price.
From the fundamental aspect, LME spots premium flat at $10.5, the inventory level increased 1125 tons to 318,600 tons, domestic spots premium RMB40-90 on Wednesday, leveled off with yesterday. Merchant shipped stabilized and, downstream factories purchased according to demand, investing and trading of market is thin.
Based on technical analysis, copper prices continues weak trend, we recommend short term can be held further as for operation. We suggest setting the LME copper price support price at $5800; domestic copper price at RMB 42000.


Soybean
Soybean No.1 Contract continues downward trend, contract 1509 fluctuant rang is RMB4300-4470/ton, the upward trend still hammers from warehouse receipt cost and, the spot bolsters downward trend; previous empty form is recommended to be held.
Soybean meal spot price slightly dropped partially, mainstream quotation is RMB2500-2600/ton, under the impact of grease rally, downward trend of soybean meal may suspend or may rally slightly; but domestic soybean and soybean meal inventory had rising gradually, partial oil plants had overwhelmed inventory, overall soybean meal still remain the weak trend.
As for operation, we suggest investors who hold soybean meal short when the price rallies, previous short holdings are recommended to be held further.
 
 
                                                                             Dong LV (Investment Certificate NO. TZ008452)