Daily Report 010615 2015-06-10
Macro Economy
The average housing price in hundred of China cities rallied compared with levels ago. Average house price of the top 10 cities as Beijing, Shanghai had increased 0.99%, extended gains to a high around 0.87%. People’s bank of China (PBOC) issued financial stability report in 29 May indicated will ensured reasonably adequate liquidity, alert the risk from local government debt and shadow banking. Currently still existing a big pressure on China economic downturn, real estate is the main drag to economic, if investment keeps up will be the crux in sales improving condition.
In addition, in Beijing time 9:00 and 9:45, China's National Bureau of Statistics and HSBC issued PMI of  manufacturing industry in May as 50.3 and 49.2 accordingly which shall be focus on.
 
 
Stock Index
The stock index volatile in last week, it tumbled on Thursday which extremely damages the market. Ordinarily when facing the extremely damages like this market will not rise in a short time. In the high position, the liquidate holdings from big shareholders may express that management layer feels stock book value was higher than profits enterprise brings. Among market movers and big shareholders there may difference on information and understand, leads to an over increasing market temporally. As for the long period, bull market still had good vision in future. This round of bull market, reform bull is the crucial; asset allocation will cooperate with the reform, innovation and transition bull. According to People’s Daily authority interview on 25 May and series media for party affairs, this round economy upturns, transition is still in processing which had not stopped but increasing too fast, risk had accumulated need adjustment in midway.
Main thread of reform, transition, innovation bull, CSI 500 is remaining stronger than SSI 50, this determinacy may easier assurance compare to unilateral.
 
 
Copper
Last week cooper price continuously dropping, among which the LME copper price drooped key supported at $6080, ended at $6018, down $90. The United States first quarter GDP data failed to meet expectations, leads to anxious of insufficient demand of copper market, which hammer the copper price.
In domestic side, copper spot turned premium at RMB 20-60 after copper price falling, speculative buying in low position arises, and consumers still buy for immediate use. Commitments of traders report from CFTC indicated up to last Tuesday noncommercial long position closed out 8699 shares, buyers and sellers basically flat.
Technically, LME copper support price is $6080, and likely to keep downstream recently. We also suggest setting the support price of LME market and domestic copper separately as in $5800 and RMB 42000. Keep holding short positions as operation.
 
 
Soybean
Soybean No 1. Contract met resistance around the cost of warehouse receipt, maintain slightly fall back, due lacking of substantially bullish subjects and spot raised weakly, Contract 1509 faced stronger pressure around RMB 4450-4500/ton. In this position, it will attract the majority sell side delivery market get involved, hence remain shorten above the cost of warehouse receipt.
Soybean meal spot price keeps going down, subjected the hammer from costs falling and suppliers rising, soybean meal median is weak; transience rebound is expected hard to change the median weak.
As for operation, soybean meal remains mentality of short when facing rebound, keep holding previous empty single.


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