Daily Report 250315 2015-03-25
Domestic AU1506 extended the rebound during the night session, short-term pattern broke abovethe resistance at 20-day moving average of 241.5 yuan, and MA system arrangement was bullish. The overall gold price trend was still bearish, was at a periodic bottom in the short term, contain rebound correction. The U.S. Feb. CPI and new house sales data were better than expected. On the other hand, Fed officials hold divergent points of view towards rate hiking in June. Thus, gold markets might appear technical short cover in the short term, to help gold prices reverse. Besides, Greece lacks funds in the short term, pay attention to the negotiation it with Germany. And if risk aversion warms up, gold prices can get support. On the funds hand, Gold ETF positions remained the same for four days, indicating the wait-and-see attitude of funds towards gold.
Operation strategy: hold short-term long positions built in at 237.5 yuan, which may encounter callback intraday. But we predict the pattern to be rebound, and the upper aim is at 247.5 yuan.
Domestic AG1506 went down and then rose during the night session, moving average system arrangement was bullish with an increased volatility, would meet strong resistance if rebound to 3,700 yuan.
Operation strategy: use rebound mode when trading in the short term. Take profit appropriately at 3,700 yuan for long positions built in at 3,530 yuan last week. Correction might appear at upper resistance interval of 3,700-3,750 yuan. Take wait-and-see attitude intraday.
Stock Index
The preliminary reading of March HSBC PMI was 49.2, lower than the expected 50.5, addition with continuous increases, stock index pulled back intraday. The surge was due to simplified policy, empowerment, innovation, productivity release and the expectation of policy easing. However, the slump of traditional manufacturing and investment data triggered market concerns, especially after significant rise. The status quo is, optimistic expectation, intensive policy publishing, reformation and obvious investment backing. Stock index has had an over-large surge, and short-term overdraft was oversized, correction is likely to happen at 4,000 points. View the mid-term pattern, it is still a bull market.
The U.S. soybean edged down overnight, affected by slowed-down Chinese import and the coming month-end report. The market concern is focusing on sown area report at the month-end, which, namely, an import guideline for future price movements. Short-term U.S. soybean stopped falling, and was at previous volatile interval. It is predicted that impacts of the report would be smaller than the market expected.
On the domestic hand, soymeal physicals prices edged up associated with the market, rose 10-30 yuan/ton, only few factories lowered the price for the sake of trading. Businesses maintained a high operation rate, and the intentory of oil plants was not large. Since south markets have started to stock up aquatic products. Besides, meals demand has been promoted, leading spot prices surge and trading volume rise. On the futures hand, rapeseed meal and soymeal were strong, and would kept volatile before the U.S. market chose a direction. Soybean prices in northeast markets continued to decline, the cleaning grain purchasing prices in Inner Mongolia and Heilongjiang were 1.97-2.03 yuan/jin. Pricing falling in northeast markets was faster than expected, mainly due to the warmer weather, inconvenience soybean storage and selling before spring plowing. Therefore, Soybean No.1 dipped, the current futures prices are at warrant cost interval, and is projected to remain volatile and weak.
Operation strategy: take short-term positions or just wait and see.
PP futures opened high and fluctuated yesterday, opened at 8,290 yuan, and closed at 8,233 yuan; trading volume rose 131,000 lots to 668,000 lots; positions increased 24,812 ltos to 336,000 lots. On the upstream hand, propylene prices leveled off. On the devices hand, 400,000 tons of new Pucheng clean energy capacity is being maintained. On the spot hand, domestic PP markets kept surging, the overall price soared 100-200 yuan/ton.
PetroChina Mid and South China, Sinopec North, East and South China took turns to raise ex-factory prices, enhanced the support towards source cost, and inspired investors. Crude oil continuously rose, the futures opened high and went higher, further stimulated merchants to follow the rally and unwillingly to ship. Downstream factories exclude high prices, trading of firm orders were made via one-order-one-bargain.
Take wires as an example, current main quoted prices in north, east and south China are 8,400-8,500 yuan/ton, 8,650-8,750 yuan/ton and 8,650-8,800 yuan/ton.
Operation strategy: recent 1509 prices have broken through 8,000 yuan resistance, and moving average system arrangement was bullish, MACD gold cross formed, revealed as a bull market, take band long positions.
                                                                                           Dong LV (Investment Certificate NO. TZ008452)