Daily Report 100215 2015-02-10
Domestic AU1506 narrowly corrected during the night session, was pressured at 250-day moving average of 252 yuan, and had support at 250 yuan.
Operation strategy: there are signs of the recent rebound of gold prices to end up, and the new tendency is projected to act as decline associated with fluctuations. Short-term short positions established while weakly breaking below 254.5 yuan intraday can be profit taken in proper quantity, and prepare defense at 252 yuan intraday.
The performance of Jan. labor market conditions index that the Fed’s pays high attention to was inferior while the data of last December substantially revised up. Market expectations about the Fed’s interest raise is unchanged. U.S. dollar index narrowly corrected. On the other hand, the risk of Greece leaving the EU rose, triggering risk aversion, observe the attitude the Eurogroup meeting towards Greece.
Synthetically, the continuous improvement of U.S. economy and the enhanced expectation of interest raise would pressure gold prices in midterm. Conversely, the uncertainty of Greece would support the gold market.
Domestic AG1506 edged up during the night session, having corrected a part of the drop on Monday; got support at 60-day moving average of 3,560 yuan, and was pressured at 5-day moving average of 3,640 yuan.
Operation strategy: continue to hold previous short positions established at 3,800 yuan; while for short positions established while weakly breaking below 3,600 yuan, we have suggested to entirely take profit on yesterday.
Overall, silver prices move along with gold prices, but performing with weak financial attribute and stronger volatility. Overseas silver prices bounced back to $18.5 and then fell under the pressure. Recent rebound seems to end up, but no significant bearish signs. In addition, rallies might appear after substantial plunge. The overall pattern is predicted to decline associated with fluctuations.
Stock Index
Stock index met support at lows yesterday, and bounced back slightly. Frozen funds due to IPO and investigations against margin trading pressured the stock market. IPO may speed up in the latter half of the year, pressuring the uptrend of stock index. The big bull enthusiasm weakened this year. CPI run at lows, and is predicted to fall below 1%, creates the imagine of further monetary policies.
Stock index is being supported by 60-day moving average and previous lows (9th and 24th December and 19th January), is unlikely to move downward in a short term. Treat as volatile, the resistance line is at 10-day moving average, and the support line is at 60-day moving average.
Overnight U.S. soybean edged up at close, being influenced by the position correction of monthly supply and demand report. The USDA would publish the monthly supply and demand report today, the market expectation is that the yearly U.S. soybean 2014/15 inventory would lower to 0.398 billion bushels, was 0.41 billion bushels last month; global 2014/15 yearly soybean ending inventory is 90,440,000 tons, and was 90,780,000 tons last month. We consider that there is a small number of data can be corrected of this report, and thus has small effect on the market. The inspected amount of weekly U.S. soybean export is 1,485,000 tons, close to the upper edge of the expectation interval. Institutions lowered the estimation of Brazil soybean output. The weather of South America is okay, U.S. soybean waved among 950-1,000 cents.
DCE Soybean No.1 edged up during the night session, fluctuated around 4,400 yuan in a short term. Theoretically, the warrant cost of Soybean No.1 should be 4,450-4,550 yuan/ton, focus on the performance among this interval. Soymeal spot prices flatted, crush slumped last week, but the sales was good, thus, inventory level reduced. Accordingly, unexecuted contracts increased, plus the stock preparation before the festival is going to end up, and oil plants will pause during the Spring Festival holiday, purchasing willingness slumped. We predict the market would mainly be stable.
Operation strategy: seek short opportunities above 4,500 yuan for Soybean No.1, hold a small number of positions for soymeal, and short at highs.
                                                                                    Dong LV (Investment Certificate NO. TZ008452)