Daily Report 040215 2015-02-04
Domestic AU1506 fluctuated and declined during the night session, performed as correcting this week, got support at 20-day moving average of 255 yuan in short term, while being strongly pressured at 259 yuan.
Operation advice: recent rebound of gold prices is likely to end up, consider as volatile and weak, short-term prudent investors can seek operation opportunities breaking through 259.5-254.5 yuan .
The negotiation between Greece and the EU has relieved a bit, risk-aversion cooled slightly. Euro rebounded and pressured US dollar, and US dollar index fell associated with gold prices. On the capitals hand, Gold ETF cut 1.79 positions overnight—the first cut for 10 days, indicating the lowered investment interests of funds towards gold, pay attention to whether the cut is continuous. U.S. employment data of private sector of January will be released today, is estimated to be 220,000 people according to previous 241,000.
Domestic AG1506 slid and then rose during the night session, short-term got support at 30-day moving average of 3,625 yuan, yet had pressure at 20-day moving average of 3,700 yuan already.
Operation advice: for short positions established when weakly breaking down 3,800 yuan intraday, moderately take profit at 3,600 yuan, and hold the rest, prepare defense at 3,700 yuan in short term. Overall, silver prices move along with gold prices, showing stronger volatility and weak financial attribute.
Overseas silver prices bounced back to $18.5, and then fell under pressure, the rebound pattern seems to end up recently, but without significant bearish signs. Rebound correction might appear after significant slump, the overall pattern is projected to decline associated with fluctuations.
On the capitals hand, Silver ETF ascended 35.73 tons of positions overnight, after remaining the same for 10 days. Yet this has limited impacts on supporting silver prices, pay attention to the continuity of buying in the afternoon session. From the newest data of Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the net non-commercial silver positions (compiled) is over 100 percent already, indicating capitals allocated in silver are overbought, beware of the risk of silver prices falling.
Overnight U.S. soybean rebounding, being impacted by the rally of commodity, the market, as a whole, had been driven by US dollar plunge and crude oil surge. U.S. soybean jumped by 2.9 percent ($27.5 cents), approached to the resistance at $10 intraday. The fundamentals of demand and supply are relatively flat. Rainfalls arrived at Argentina, having eased the dry climate. Like what we have mentioned previously, short-term U.S. soybean might get support at 950 cents. Although short-term South America weather has not encountered obvious adverse impacts, later draught in northern Argentina might lead to the reduction of output. Plus U.S. soybean needs corrections after several days’ pullback.
Accordingly, DCE soybean continued to rebound triggered by U.S. markets. Current prices of DCE No.1 Soybean contracts have not reached the warrant cost. Seek to sell A1505 contracts breaking above 4,500 yuan, if the spot keeps operating weakly. Soymeal spot is stable, stocking before the festival has accomplished, and fodder demand will go through a downturn for about 1 month. The U.S. market is relatively resilient, rebounded last night, and the support is obvious at 2,650 of domestic markets. Thus we suggested yesterday to cut short positions and sell all after the rebound finished this week. Observe short opportunities above 4,500 yuan for No.1 Soybean contracts.
                                                                                       Dong LV (Investment Certificate NO. TZ008452)