Daily Report 020215 2015-02-02
Domestic AU1506 rose associated with fluctuations last Friday, acquired supports at 20-day moving average, covered the gap of Thursday, yet pressured when rebounded at 5-day moving average in short term.
Operation advice: take short positions when weakly break down RMB 258, and then lighten up some at RMB 253, prepare defense at RMB 258.5 intraday.
The Fed hold the prediction of interest raise, and that will pressure gold prices in medium term. On the statistics hand, U.S. Q4 GDP is 2.4% lower than expected, but with highest growth over last 4 years. Continuous consumer market warming up and the improvement of manufacturing industry indicate strong economic recovery momentum of the U.S.. U.S. dollar index midterm surge pattern is unchanged. On the other hand, the risk of Greece to exit E.U. intensified, and Russia and Ukraine caught up in fighting again, those have boosted risk-aversion buying in short term as a whole.
On the capital hand, Gold ETF remained the same for three days, funds still hold bullish view towards gold prices in short term.
Generally, domestic gold prices are strongly under pressure at RMB 263, and are hard to break through recently. Since gold prices are highly volatile, investor can take conduct short-term operation with small amount. The PMI of China Euro Zone and the U.S. would be released today, and U.S. will announce the non-farm data on this Friday.
Domestic AG1506 edged up last Friday, with a weak rebound compared with gold prices. Concern the effectiveness of support at 30-day moving of RMB 3,615 in short term.
Operation advice: take some profit of short positions established at the weak breakdown of RMB 3,800 at RMB 3,600, and hold the remaining, prepare defense at RMB 3,700 intraday. Overall, silver prices move along with gold prices, but with a weak metal nature and stronger volatility.
Overseas silver prices bounced back to $18.5 and then dip under pressures; the rebound trend seems to end up recently, but no significant bearish signs; rebound correction might appear after plunges; are likely to fall associated with fluctuations.
On the capitals hand, Silver ETF remains unchanged for 9 days, indicating funds’ wait-and-see attitudes.
Stock index
Stock index fluctuated and fell back last Friday. since banks, insurances and securities intensified the management against leverage capitals, the entrance of future incremental capitals, and triggered waves of market sentiments. Huatai Securities raised the margin trading ratio again, further reinforced passive predictions. At the same time, 24 companies obtained permissions of IPO, the extension increased pressure on capitals. Accordingly, heavyweights might keep corrections dragging indexes.
U.S. soybean extended the downtrend last Friday, pressured by the high-yielding prospect of South America, plus funds’ selling at the end of the month. The performance of U.S. soybean in the last week is dominated by downtrend correction. Mainly influenced by the high-yielding prospect of South America, the northern Brazil started to rap, the yield is ideal, plus the east part has had the rainfall, eased the drought. Weather in northwest Argentina is hot, whether this would drag the output need to be concerned. Current situation of U.S. soybean is week, pullback pattern has sustained for three and a half weeks, might be oversell in short term, the support line is located at 950 cents.
DCE soybean is still weak. Market’s expectation further declined due to the continuous sluggish spot market. Calculate according to current spot prices, the 1505 contract would attract sell-side delivery at the price over RMB 4,500/ton. Soymeal spot further pulled back, the demand of stock-up before the Spring Festival is not good, and the demand of fodder would step into the small slack season, those, as a whole, have bearish influences against the market.
The No.1 Document of the Central Government released, reinforced the importance of agriculture in diverse aspects, but has limited improvements on soybean.
Operation advice: hold some previous short positions of DCE soymeal; as for soybean No.1, remain the pattern of short-on-the-rebound.
PP futures continued to fluctuate last week. On the upstream hand, propylene prices leveled off on Friday, averaged at RMB 800.5/ton. Crude oil significantly rebounded last Friday, WTI crude surged by $3.71, and averaged at $48.24/barrel. Brent crude increased by $ 3.86, and averaged at $52.99/barrel. Ethylene fell, CFR Northeast Asia ethylene averaged at $870.5/ton; CFR Southeast Asia ethylene dipped by $5, and averaged at $875.5/ton. The significant rebound of crude oil is projected to become today’s support factor.
On the device hand, the operation rate has no significant change. On the spot hand, domestic PE market prices remained the downward trend last week. Although linear futures stopped falling and edged up in the mid-week, merchants were passive, proactively discounted to ship.
Last week, the Northern China quoted at RMB 8,600-8,900/ton, Eastern China quoted at RMB 8,800-9,000/ton, and Southern China quoted at RMB 9,050-9,200/ton. Fundamentals remained the weakness. View the market as a whole, prices fluctuated between RMB 8,000 and RMB 8,700 recently. Since no one-way directional speculation themes, it is likely to remain the correction. Can mainly wait and see, remain range-bound trading thoughts.
                                                                               Dong LV (Investment Certificate NO. TZ008452)