Daily Report 060115 2015-01-06
Macro Economy

The U.S. and European Market shocked last night, the U.S. S&P 500 Index encountered the biggest slump since October last year. The selling occurred in the whole stock market infected by energy stocks, and the market was worrying about further profit loss for reducing capital expenditure. Both S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Index fell over 1.8%; S&P energy index dropped nearly 4%; WTI crude oil futures slumped 5%, and became the biggest burden of U.S. energy stocks and relative stock indexes. Global economic slowdown undermined demand. Moreover, oil producing countries and U.S. shale oil producers did not plan to reduce output. Thus, oversupply contributed crude oil prices glide. The German government spokesman expressed that the Merkel—the president—government would continue to support Greek in order to stable the euro. However, the speech did not bring much stimulation, conversely, the U.S. and European stock market and crude oil slumped, while U.S. dollar and gold surged. Fells of U.S. debt yields indicated that risk aversion sentiments are arising in the market.
 
For the domestic market, Keqiang Li, president of the State Council, asserted that Chinese device export could transfer the excess supply of domestic market, and promote “made in China”. The HSBC and Markit published Chinese service industry and composite PMI of December, the data of last period were 53 and 51.1.
 
 
 
Stock Index
 
The stock index closed up yesterday. The market predicted more easing policies based on recent weak HSBC and Chinese official manufacturing PMI. SimultaneoU.S.ly, the intense situation of funds has released, and interest rates resumed stability. Furthermore, state-owned enterprises reform and the coming program of Shenzhen-Hong Kong stock mutual exchange activated hot topics. Accordingly, stock index rebounded. The index is incredibly increasing; funds in the market may ask to take profit at any time. Index futures slumped in the late-day trading. It is inevitable for index fluctuation in a short run, keep cautious. when operate.
 
 
 
Soybean
 
Overnight U.S. soybean surged due to export demand and bargain-hunters. Information: 1. Weekly U.S. soybean export is 1,406,000 tons, cumulatively 3,080,000 tons; it was 2,517,000 tons for the same period last year. 2. The U.S. exported 233,000 tons soybean to China. 3. The U.S. Midwest regions encountered cold snap. The U.S. soybean resumed nearly two deals’ drop. Currently, it would attract selling provided that futures prices rise to around 1,050 cents, while buying would prevail if the prices fall to around 1,000 cents. The short-term prices fluctuated between 1,000 cents and 1,050 cents, pay attention to the U.S.DA demand and supply report of January. The DCE No.1 1501 contracts formally stepped into the delivery month, pay attention to warrant registrations and long-short matches. The DCE soymeal spot prices reduced in some places, the current spot prices of Shandong, Zhejiang, Guangdong and Guangxi are RMB 3,100-3,180 per ton. The price is estimated to keep weakly fluctuating influenced by intensive supply and weak spot. The operation advice is mainly short DCE soymeal at high prices. Besides, it is suggested to wait for soybean No.1 contracts.
 
 
 
PP
 
PP futures opened high and climbed down yesterday. For the upstream, crude oil kept sinking, propylene flatted. For the spot, domestic PP market slumped yesterday, prices fell RMB 100-200 per ton as a whole. Petrochemical factory prices reduced, by turns, undermined the support towards resource costs. Accordingly, merchants lowered quoted prices, and increased shipments. Factories from downstream is waiting, trading was mainly composed of small deals. Take wires as an example, North China quoted at RMB 8,900-9,100 per ton, East China quoted at RMB 9,200-9,500 per ton, and South China quoted at RMB 9,350-9,600 per ton. The market is mainly bearish. Although PP wobbled between 7,500 and 8,000, overnight crude oil crashed, it is highly possible to break 7,500. It is suggested to focus. on the performance at line 7,500. It is better off to take short positions.
 
                                                                                          Dong LV (Investment Certificate NO. TZ008452)