Daily Report 231214 2014-12-23
Macro Economy

The basic stock index of the US stock market reached a record high yesterday. Technology stocks rose, and drove the US stock market recovered from the first 7 days of December. S&P 500 index grew 0.38% to 2,078.54, specifically, both information technology index and telecommunication services index increased over 1%.
In statistical perspective, the US November existing home sales declined 6.1% on a month-to-month basis (4,930,000 annually)—the lowest value since May, while as from a year earlier, it increased by over 2%, which means the trend of recovery for real estate industry has not changes. Consumer confidence index (CCI) of euro zone is higher than expected value -11 on an initial value at -10.9. Synthesizing former data, the CCI of Q4 tended to be stable, and this is partially due to the influence from long-term low inflation acting on family actual income increase.
As for the commodity market, since there is no possibility for Saudi Arabic to reduce output no matter how much the oil price sunk, the price slumped after a rebound, and the settlement price of WTI crude oil dipped by over 2%. The Russian government invested 300 trillion Rubles to help the national trustee bank in order to stable the currency.
In the domestic market, 91.5% bankers predicted a “moderate” or “tend to be loose” monetary policy for Q1 of 2015, polled by the People’s Bank of China (PBC), indicating the optimistic of market in front of the policy. Besides, PBC and the Bank of Thailand renewed the Bilateral Currency Swap Agreement, the bilateral Currency swap amount is RMB 700 trillion against THB 3,700 trillion. The validity of the agreement is 3 years, which may, as planned, to contribute to railway construction and other relative industries.


Stock Index

The spot price modestly rose yesterday, while futures dropped dramatically, and the premium basically returned to no-arbitrage interval. Despite barely closed up, the actual force of increase was the minority of heavyweights, when mid-and small-capitalization stocks generally slumped. Intensive funding between banks and money magnets of heavyweight blue-chips, funds of stock market lost the balance. Funding risks might continually pressure the index if PBC takes no further easing or other measures. It is suggested to wait rather than rush into the market, beware of the beginning of a plummet cycle.


Soybean

The overnight US market closed up for a little amount, flatly performed in front of the Christmas. The soybean meal spot strongly performed, as large amount of export brought up the market. Argentina sowed 75% soybeans, and the central and south parts basically have finished work. Strike took place at Puerto del Rosario. The amount of inspection for the US soybean export was 2,230,000 tons, higher than the corresponding period of last week and last year. The US market is volatile, and trading slowed down this week due to the Christmas holiday. Less information can be found in relation to the US market, export demand is stable and the South America performed well, indicating the market lacks substantial clues to be driven. Thus, focus on demand and supply reports of this month and January. DCE soybean No.1 will step into the high-profile 1501 delivery period. Pay attention to the withdraw methods of long positions. Once delivery finished, the soybean futures purchasing would come to a conclusion. The spot is encountering centralized selling. That is to say, forward prices have callback spaces. Affected by intensive domestic supply, the spot price of coastal areas declined to RMB 3,200-3,250 per ton; and the market prediction of import for this month and January is over 14,500,000. The market has callback motivation for a short period. Thus, mainly hold short position for DCE soymeal, and short back month soybean No.1 in a small amount.                         
                                                                                     Dong LV (Investment Certificate NO. TZ008452)