Daily Report 101114 2014-11-10
Gold

In domestic market, investors should be aware that main contract of gold has already moved to AU 1506. The gold rose significantly last Friday, soaring to RMB 231.8 after standing on the 5-day moving average. In terms of operations, previous short positions opened at RMB 240 against the 20-day moving average could be kept. Defensive moves should be prepared at RMB 233.5. Pay attention to the potential rebound risk of gold. During the intraday trading, performance of gold around 10-day moving average at RMB 233.5 is likely to be tested. The U.S. non-farm payrolls released last Friday was slightly lower than expected, but the unemployment rate is as low as 5.8%, lower than the Fed’s target region between 5.9% and 6%. The low wage growth rate has been the focus of the market. On the whole, the employment market is improving. The Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s statement is relatively moderate. It is expected that the rate hike will not take place in the short time. Gold in international market rallied while the USD index dropped from 88. Positions of overnight gold ETF continue dropping for 11.67 tons in the past seven days, indicating the funds are not holding an optimistic view of the gold. The market investment is relatively weak. The U.S. consumer confidence index and Fed officers’ statements about rate hike policy will be released on Friday. Attention should be paid on those issues.


Silver

In domestic market, investors should be aware that main contract of silver has already moved to AG 1506. Last Friday, silver rallied following the trend of gold. The silver continues increasing after breaking through the pressure line at RMB 3260. In terms of operations, previous short positions opened around 20-day moving average at RMB 3750 could be held. Defensive moves should be prepared according to the 5-day moving average at RMB 3295. Pay attention to the potential rebound risk of silver. Performance of silver around 10-day moving average at RMB 3460 should be in focus. Recently, volatility of both gold and silver rose sharply. Long positions and short positions fluctuated significantly with the trading volume soaring. On the whole, recent rebound of silver may be the revise of previous slump. Performance of silver around $ 16 in the foreign market should be focused. The weak trend of silver will remain in mid-term.


Soybean

In domestic market, soybean in Dalian Commodity Exchange remains widely range-bound. The A 1505 and A 1509 futures contracts drop due to the increase of positions by funds. Domestic soybean spot is relatively weak. The following trend of soybean is believed to be downward. The soybean meal spot is rather strong. China imported 4.1 million tons of soybeans in October, which is lower by 2.1% on year-on-year basis and lower than expected as well. In terms of operations, reports being released tonight should be in focus. Investors are not recommended to take any moves toward the soybean meal in Dalian Commodity Exchange in short term. As for the No.1 soybean, contracts in near months are believed to be strong while contracts in far months are weak.
                                                                                      Dong LV (Investment Certificate NO. TZ008452)