Daily Report 150914 2014-09-15
Gold
The domestic gold remained a downward trend on last Friday. It seems unlikely for the gold to rebound in a short term. Recently, the risk of geopolitics is cooling down. The market is then focusing on the monetary policy of the Fed. The U.S. consumer confidence data keeps improving, which strengthens the market expectation toward the rate hike. Attentions should be paid to the statement about rate hike in the Federal Reserve meeting on interest rate on Thursday. Besides, the European market in this week should also be concentrated on.  Scotland is going to have a referendum about whether to be an independent country or not. The change of policy will lead to reallocation of funds. Influenced by the Scotland issue, the U.S. dollar index will be bolstered by the depreciation of the GBP, which is negative news for the dollar-denominated gold. The change of inflation data after ECB’s stimulus policy is another important aspect that needs to be focused on. In terms of funds, the gold ETF remains increasing slightly for six straight days by 2.68 tons. Investors should be cautious in case the gold rebounds for the funds may choose to purchase when the price is low. However, data from the CFTC shows neither the producers nor the speculative funds hold an optimistic view toward the gold.
As for the operations, previous short positions opened at RMB 260, RMB 251 and RMB 249.5 could be held. Investors could take short positions if the intraday trading volume is weak and the price drops below RMB 244. Stop-profit should be set at RMB 240 and stop-loss should be set at RMB 245. 
 


Silver 
The domestic silver dropped on Friday following the downward trend of the gold, but the decrease is relatively small compared with the gold. Recently, the domestic silver future has a continuous discount compared with the silver spot. The silver spot shows a rather strong resilience. As a result, the silver has an upward trend while the gold drops. However, it seems pretty difficult for the silver to rise independently. Investors are recommended to adopt strategies like future and spot, and gold & silver index. In terms of funds, the silver ETF positions kept increasing for 6 straight days by 195.41 tons. Investors should be cautious in case the silver rebounds for the funds may choose to purchase when the price is low. However, data from the CFTC shows neither the producers nor the speculative funds hold an optimistic view toward the silver.
As for the operations, previous short positions opened at RMB 4130 and RMB 4080 could be held. The performance of silver at RMB 4020 should be focused on during the intraday trading.
                                                                                                                   Dong LV (Investment Certificate NO. TZ008452)