Daily Report 190517 2017-05-19

Thursday copper market trade and investment is active. Copper price reached the lowest $5485, then meets strong bolster. LME inventory yesterday increased 750 tons to 340000 tons. LME actuals discount enlarged $0.5 to discount $18. Overall, global macro economy is relatively gentle, but the tighten capital still stress on copper price. Mid-term keeps short tendency.
Gold and Silver

Yesterday Gold and Silver both rushed high and rolled back. From both information side and technical side, the rolling back is reasonable. Information side, yesterday there was video evidence that the former US Federal Bureau of Investigation Cumy said the Trump government "through the Russian" investigation has never encountered obstacles, therefore, the probability of Trump impeachment fell, the market risk aversion diminished.

On the data side, VIX index fell below 15, the dollar index was back to 98 point, June interest rate probability returns to above 70%, which have prompted the gold and silver callback yesterday.

Similarly, technical side, yesterday gold and silver has been running to the important pressure near the bit. Since the data side and the message side both negative gold and silver, so yesterday's callback is inevitable.
Today recommended continuing attention to Trump's recent dynamics and the probability of raising interest
rates in June. If the June interest hike probability stands above 70%, then the probability of interest rate in June is still very large. On the contrary, once below 70%, then the interest rate probability is less. From the technical side, focus on the overseas section spot gold stand back on 1250 line, if Trump scandal did not further deterioration and no sudden risk events, the possibility of drop is large.

                                                                      Dong LV (Investment Certificate NO. TZ008452)